新城土地利用空间分布模拟与交通需求预测

发布时间：2018-03-05 20:11

本文选题：新城　切入点：土地利用　出处：《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》2014年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为解决新城交通需求预测难题,运用随机效用理论,将居住选址和活动选址分布定义为土地租金和交通区位的Logit形式,并建立家庭参与居住选址和活动选址分配的平衡等式,从而得到模拟新城土地利用的空间分布的Logit模型.在此基础上,将新城的人口就业分布和选址函数嵌入到交通需求预测模型中,使其成为一个出行生成与分布的组合模型.最后以广州南沙新城为例,对模型进行验证.结果显示:模型能较好地模拟新城的土地利用分布,对居住选址和活动选址的分布具有良好的解析能力;在考虑住房、店铺空置的情况下,预测2030年南沙总人口数为242万,日交通生成总量为732.2万人次,与未考虑该因素的常规方法相比,总人口数和日交通生成总量分别降低19.3%和12.8%.
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of forecasting traffic demand in the new town, the residential location and active location distribution are defined as the Logit form of land rent and traffic location by means of stochastic utility theory, and the equilibrium equation of household participation in residential location and activity location allocation is established. On the basis of this, the employment distribution and location function of the new town are embedded in the traffic demand forecasting model. Finally, taking Nansha New City of Guangzhou as an example, the model is verified. The results show that the model can simulate the distribution of land use in the new town. It is predicted that in 2030, the total population of Nansha was 2.42 million, and the total daily traffic generated was seven million three hundred and twenty-two thousand person-times. Compared with the conventional method which does not take into account this factor, the total number of population and the total amount of daily traffic generation are reduced by 19.3% and 12.8, respectively.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学土木与交通学院;广州市城市规划勘察设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61174188)
【分类号】：U491.14

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