基于模糊层次分析法的高速公路隧道施工风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 05:14

本文选题：高速公路隧道项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《石家庄铁道大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路隧道建设项目具有施工周期长、投资大、技术要求高、内部组织复杂、外部联系广泛等特点,在施工过程中存在大量的不确定性风险。为了确保工程项目能够顺利如期完成,并且能够实现社会、经济和环境的最大效益,因此加强建设过程风险管理工作,极力避免工程项目风险的发生具有重要的现实意义。本文对高速公路隧道施工项目从风险识别、风险分析、风险评价以及采取措施等方面进行阐述,最后结合工程实例,证明了模糊层次分析法在高速公路隧道建设风险管理过程中的使用性。本文首先查阅了大量国内外关于隧道以及地下风险管理文献,针对高速公路隧道施工建设的风险进行了全面梳理和系统分析,简略介绍了高速公路隧道施工建设的特点,然后对风险识别与分析的方法进行了比较,结合工程项目特点采用工作分解结构法和专家调查法相结合的方法来对风险因素进行识别,然后通过风险识别流程得出高速公路隧道施工风险影响因素。在考虑到建设项目风险中的不确定性和模糊性,提出基于模糊层次分析法的风险评价模型,并对其评价步骤进行详细分析。本文最后通过东岭隧道实际建设项目,应用模糊层次分析法分析评价隧道项目风险,最终得出东岭隧道建设所面临的各种风险,并对这些风险的发生概率和严重程度做出评价,为风险决策提供正确有效地信息,实证表明了模糊层次分析法在高速公路隧道建设项目风险管理中的有效性。
[Abstract]:The expressway tunnel construction project has the characteristics of long construction period, large investment, high technical requirements, complex internal organization and extensive external connection, etc. In order to ensure that the project can be completed on schedule and realize the maximum social, economic and environmental benefits, the construction process risk management should be strengthened. It is of great practical significance to avoid the risk of engineering project. This paper expounds the risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and measures taken in expressway tunnel construction project. The application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk management of highway tunnel construction is proved. Firstly, a large number of documents on tunnel and underground risk management at home and abroad are consulted in this paper. Aiming at the risk of highway tunnel construction, this paper makes a comprehensive combing and systematic analysis, briefly introduces the characteristics of highway tunnel construction construction, and then compares the methods of risk identification and analysis. According to the characteristics of the project, the method of combining the work breakdown structure method with the expert investigation method is used to identify the risk factors. Then through the risk identification process, the risk factors of highway tunnel construction are obtained. Considering the uncertainty and fuzziness of construction project risk, a risk evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed. Finally, through the actual construction project of Dongling tunnel, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the tunnel project. Finally, the various risks faced by the construction of Dongling tunnel are obtained. The probability and severity of these risks are evaluated to provide correct and effective information for risk decision-making. The empirical results show the effectiveness of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk management of highway tunnel construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

【引证文献】