基于自组织临界性的城市路网承载力研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 06:09

本文选题：道路网络　切入点：沙堆模型　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的快速发展,机动车保有量的持续增长,交通拥堵问题日臻严重。在道路网络的交通量达到一定程度会涌现出自组织临界性(sO0,此时,微小的扰动可能会导致局部或大面积的拥堵事故,会直接或间接造成严重的经济、社会影响。防止道路网络车流量自组织临界状态的发生,或当系统达到自组织临界状态时,破坏系统的自组织临界状态,可在一定程度上预防大面积拥堵事故的发生。本文利用沙堆模型对道路网络车流量的SOC进行探讨,并结合北京市实际道路网络,从SOC的角度对路网承载力进行定性和定量分析。首先,根据2008年至2012年北京市路网中道路运行状态的数据和分时段交通拥堵指数,确定了道路网络中车流量具有SOC。同时,基于道路网络车流量的SOC,对城市路网承载力进行定义,并给出相应数学表征。其次,结合道路网络属性、驾驶员改变路径的倾向以及SOC的适用条件,建立道路网络沙堆模型,模拟道路网络车流量的演化过程。通过元胞自动机(CA)模型抽象道路网络拓扑结构,JAVA的软件环境编写路网沙堆模型演化过程。利用MATLAB处理后的路网沙堆模型结果建立路网承载力的定量模型。最后,利用模型进行仿真,验证了实际路网的SOC,并求得相应路网的路网承载力。从理论研究角度上来说,通过改变模型控制条件,确定了增大车流量不会改变道路网络车流量的SOC、路网临界拥堵时序及路网承载力的值；而改变单条道路的交通控制因素,即给定最大负荷比,会破坏道路网络的SOC,对防止大面积拥堵事故的发生有一定作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy and the continuous growth of vehicle ownership, the traffic congestion problem becomes more and more serious. When the traffic volume of the road network reaches a certain level, it will emerge from the organizational criticality. Small disturbances may lead to local or large-scale congestion accidents, directly or indirectly cause serious economic and social impacts, prevent the occurrence of self-organized critical state of traffic flow in road networks, or when the system reaches self-organized critical state. The self-organized critical state of the damage system can prevent the occurrence of large-scale congestion accidents to some extent. In this paper, the SOC of the traffic flow of road network is discussed by using the sandpile model, and combined with the actual road network in Beijing, From the point of view of SOC, the bearing capacity of road network is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. First of all, according to the data of road running state in Beijing road network from 2008 to 2012 and the traffic congestion index in different periods, the traffic flow in the road network is determined to be SOC. at the same time, Based on the SOC of the traffic flow of the road network, the bearing capacity of the urban road network is defined and the corresponding mathematical representation is given. Secondly, according to the road network attribute, the driver's tendency to change the path and the suitable condition of SOC, the road network sandpile model is established. To simulate the evolution process of road network traffic. Abstract the evolution process of road network model by cellular automata (CA) model, abstract the road network topology structure and Java software environment, and build the road network sandpile model with the result of MATLAB processing. Quantitative model of bearing capacity of road network. Finally, the model is simulated to verify the SOC of the actual road network, and the bearing capacity of the corresponding road network is obtained. From the theoretical point of view, by changing the control conditions of the model, It is determined that increasing the traffic volume will not change the SOC of the traffic flow of the road network, the critical traffic timing of the road network and the value of the carrying capacity of the road network, while changing the traffic control factors of a single road, that is, the given maximum load ratio, is determined. SOC, which will destroy the road network, can prevent the occurrence of a large area of congestion accidents.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.13

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