台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散决策行为分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 13:26

本文选题：交通工程　切入点：应急疏散　出处：《中国公路学报》2014年02期

【摘要】：为了深入挖掘台风灾害下无车群体的应急疏散决策行为,从度量疏散群体中某一普通被疏散者的风险承受能力入手,建立了被疏散者风险容忍阈值模型来描述其疏散决策过程。通过台风灾害下应急疏散行为意向调查数据采集,并在全部调查数据中依据选择"政府提供应急车辆进行疏散"的比例提取无车群体疏散数据。采用Probit回归方法对无车群体和全体被疏散者2类群体的风险容忍阈值模型进行回归,对显著影响不同群体风险承受能力的因素进行比较分析。研究结果表明:对无车群体而言,被疏散者自身的恐慌感以及灾害环境造成的威胁是影响其风险承受能力最为关键的因素;而从全体被疏散者的角度来考察,除了上述2类因素,被疏散者是否拥有私家车以及所居住房屋的承受能力对最终疏散决策有显著影响。
[Abstract]:In order to excavate the emergency evacuation decision behavior of vehicle-free group under typhoon disaster, the risk tolerance threshold model of evacuee was established to describe the evacuation decision-making process by measuring the risk tolerance ability of an ordinary evacuee in the evacuation group.The data of intention survey of emergency evacuation behavior under typhoon disaster were collected, and the evacuation data of no-vehicle group were extracted according to the proportion of selecting "emergency vehicles provided by the government to evacuate" in all the survey data.The risk tolerance threshold model of two groups without vehicle and all evacuees was regressed by Probit regression method, and the factors that significantly affected the risk tolerance of different groups were compared and analyzed.The results show that the sense of panic of the evacuees and the threat posed by the disaster environment are the most important factors affecting the risk tolerance of the evacuees, and from the perspective of all the evacuees,In addition to the above two types of factors, whether the evacuee owns a private car and the affordability of the house in which the evacuee lives has a significant impact on the final evacuation decision.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院;蒙大拿州立大学西部交通研究所;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(“八六三”计划)项目(2011AA110306-07) 教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20112302110054)
【分类号】：P429;U491

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