基于前景理论的城市居民交通出行方式选择研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 18:50

本文选题：出行方式选择 + 不确定性行为决策　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通拥堵已经成为影响城市经济发展和人民生活水平提高的一个重要因素,建立可持续的交通发展模式是根本的解决之道,而了解城市居民出行习惯和出行规律是必要条件。本文运用前景理论,对城市居民交通出行方式选择进行研究,旨在完善交通出行行为决策与预测方法,具有较好的理论与现实意义。本文对国内外不确定性决策和交通出行方式选择理论进行了归纳总结,对居民交通出行方式选择的影响因素进行了分析。针对当前交通出行方式选择研究存在的两个不足：忽视不确定性以及不同出行特性出行者存在的偏好差异,将前景理论与区间分析相结合,构建了基于前景理论的出行方式选择模型。根据不同收入、不同目的的出行者对于服务属性要求的不同,运用“参照系”理论,设立不同出行特性下的区间数“参照点”,以此建立收益损失矩阵,采用区间运算得到价值函数值,并以此为效用值构建Logit城市居民出行方式选择模型,运用Matlab进行参数标定。通过实例,对居民出行方式选择进行了分析计算,结果表明,本文提出的方法具有良好的预测性能。本文提出的基于前景理论的出行方式选择模型,不仅考虑了不确定性影响因素,而且考虑了不同出行目的出行者的偏好差异,更加切合实际,能够为交通决策者提供更好的决策依据,具有良好的应用前景。
[Abstract]:Traffic congestion has become an important factor affecting the development of urban economy and the improvement of people's living standard. Establishing a sustainable traffic development model is the fundamental solution, and understanding the travel habits and rules of urban residents is a necessary condition. Based on the prospect theory, this paper studies the choice of urban residents' transportation travel mode, aiming at perfecting the decision making and forecasting method of traffic travel behavior, which has good theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, the theory of uncertainty decision and choice of travel mode at home and abroad is summarized, and the factors influencing the choice of travel mode of residents are analyzed. In view of the two shortcomings of the current research on the choice of travel modes: ignoring the uncertainty and the differences in preferences of travelers with different travel characteristics, the foreground theory is combined with interval analysis. A trip mode selection model based on foreground theory is constructed. According to different income and different purpose traveler's request for service attribute, using "reference frame" theory, set up interval number "reference point" under different travel characteristic, thus establish income loss matrix. The value function value is obtained by interval operation, and the model of Logit urban residents' travel mode selection is constructed based on the utility value. The parameters are calibrated by Matlab. The results show that the proposed method has good prediction performance. In this paper, the travel mode selection model based on foreground theory not only takes into account the uncertain factors, but also takes into account the different preferences of travelers with different travel purposes, so it is more practical. It can provide better decision-making basis for traffic decision makers and has a good application prospect.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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