大型活动突发事件下交通疏散效率评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 15:12

本文选题：大型活动 + 突发事件　；参考：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：大型活动期间,往往在短时间内集聚了大量人流和车流,一旦突发危害性事件,应急疏散过程中的交通需求在时空上的集中特性尤为突出,增加了城市交通压力和发生次生事件的可能性。为提高应对危害性突发事件能力、保障应急交通疏散过程安全有序,必须合理规划应急交通疏散方案,如何选择最优疏散方案则成为了应急管理部门的决策难点。要做出对疏散方案优劣的判断,就需要对各方案的应急交通疏散效率进行全面、明确的评价。本文因此对大型活动突发事件下的应急交通疏散效率评价指标体系和评价方法展开了研究。首先,本文在总结国内外相关研究成果的基础上,对大型活动和突发事件进行了概念界定,对应急交通疏散效率的内涵进行了研究,并总结了大型活动交通特性、区位特性和运行组织特性,归纳了大型活动突发事件的特征。其次,探讨了大型活动应急交通疏散问题及其与一般场合下应急交通疏散的区别和联系,分析了应急交通疏散过程和应急交通疏散方案内容构成,研究了大型活动应急交通疏散的疏散需求、疏散交通流和采取的交通管控措施等交通特性。针对应急交通疏散效率影响因素分析构建了疏散效率评价指标体系,并给出了每一指标的度量方法,结合专家评分法、信息粒度和粗糙集理论构建了基于粗糙集-信息粒度的指标筛选模型,实现评价指标约简,共筛选出包括疏散风险、疏散路网连通度等在内的11个指标。最后,运用目前已有的评价理论,对传统的AHP判断矩阵取值方式、基点相对重要性计算方法、判断矩阵修正方法和权重确定方法进行了改进,并与PPCE模型结合求解各指标的主客观权重,设计了求解PPCE模型和CAHP模型的基于实数编码的自适应遗传算法(RAGA),构建了基于组合赋权的广义价值函数评价模型。为验证所建评价指标体系和评价模型的实用性,选取一个虚拟突发事件下的武汉体育中心应急交通疏散场景进行实例运用,以Trans CAD作为仿真平台,得到了疏散路网上流量分配情况及相关指标数值,并用MATLAB软件进行综合评价计算,通过各方案的应急交通疏散效率值对比筛选出最优方案。
[Abstract]:During large-scale activities, a large number of people and vehicles are often gathered in a short period of time. In the event of a sudden and harmful event, the traffic demand in the emergency evacuation process is especially concentrated in time and space. Increased urban traffic pressure and the possibility of secondary events. In order to improve the ability to deal with hazardous emergencies and ensure the safety and order of emergency traffic evacuation process, it is necessary to plan the emergency traffic evacuation scheme reasonably. How to choose the optimal evacuation plan has become the decision-making difficulty of the emergency management department. To judge the advantages and disadvantages of the evacuation scheme, it is necessary to make a comprehensive and clear evaluation of the emergency traffic evacuation efficiency of each scheme. Therefore, the evaluation index system and evaluation method of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency are studied in this paper. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related research results at home and abroad, this paper defines the concept of large-scale activities and emergencies, studies the connotation of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency, and summarizes the traffic characteristics of large-scale events. Location characteristics and operational organization characteristics, summed up the characteristics of large-scale events emergencies. Secondly, the paper discusses the problem of emergency traffic evacuation in large-scale activities and the difference and relation between emergency traffic evacuation and emergency traffic evacuation in general, and analyzes the process of emergency traffic evacuation and the content of emergency traffic evacuation scheme. In this paper, the evacuation requirements, evacuation flow and traffic control measures of emergency traffic evacuation for large scale events are studied. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the evacuation efficiency of emergency traffic, the evaluation index system of evacuation efficiency is constructed, and the measurement method of each index is given, which is combined with the expert scoring method. Based on information granularity and rough set theory, an index screening model based on rough set and information granularity is constructed, and evaluation index reduction is realized. Eleven indexes, including evacuation risk and connectivity of evacuation network, are screened out. Finally, using the existing evaluation theory, this paper improves the traditional AHP judgment matrix method, the calculation method of the relative importance of the base point, the judgment matrix correction method and the weight determination method. Combining with the PPCE model to solve the subjective and objective weights of each index, an adaptive genetic algorithm based on real coding for solving PPCE model and CAHP model is designed, and a generalized value function evaluation model based on combinatorial weight is constructed. In order to verify the practicability of the evaluation index system and evaluation model, an emergency traffic evacuation scene of Wuhan Sports Center under the virtual emergency was selected to be used as an example, and Trans CAD was used as the simulation platform. The flow distribution and related index values of the evacuation road network are obtained, and the optimal scheme is selected by comparing the evacuation efficiency values of each scheme with the comprehensive evaluation calculation by MATLAB software.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】