北海至涠洲岛航线配船研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 19:11

本文选题：航线配船 + 遗传算法　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在旅游热兴起的今天，国家连续出台各项关于推进和加快旅游业发展的政策后，涠洲岛的旅游资源开发已经纳入国家的重点发展规划战略。涠洲岛作为北部湾旅游业中佼佼者，必须起到一个带头示范作用，利用其自身优质的旅游条件，资源优势以及旅游战略价值，成为带动北海旅游业的强力引擎和核心支柱，为广西经济带来新的经济增长点。然而作为维系涠洲岛与内陆之间最主要的交通方式，涠洲岛的水上客运一直是涠洲人关注的问题，进出该岛交通方式的单一，基础设施建设的问题滞后日渐突出，已经成为制约该岛旅游发展的重要瓶颈问题之一，因此解决和优化涠洲岛水上客运存在的问题，具有很重大的现实意义。本文首先阐述了水路客运航线配船的基本原理，分析北海至涠洲岛客运航线的现状并从定性和定量两个方面预测了该航线的客流发展趋势。定性预测是从旅游开发，国家战略发展政策的支持和自身发展的需求三个方面的进行分析，预测航线的客流将呈较快增长趋势，定量预测方面是结合该航线的运营条件，依据航线客运量的时间特征，运用时间序列分解法对该航线未来的客运量进行较为精确的预测，为本文后面章节的展开提供可靠数据。在预测该航线的未来客流将有大幅增长和现有船舶运营条件不变的情况下，对该航线的配船提出优化势在必行。在第三章里以运营系统成本最低为目标函数，以客运量和现有船舶数量为约束，建立数学模型，利用Matlab软件编程计算得出航线配船优化结果，对优化结果进行分析，并提出该优化模型的两个缺陷即：1）在实际问题复杂化后，传统的优化模型将难以得出最优解；2）没有综合考虑航线发班时刻对整个系统成本和乘客等待时间的影响。针对以上模型的缺陷，第四章提出将企业运营成本和发班时刻表综合考虑的数学模型，将实际背景转化为0-1背包问题，利用遗传算法求解，，得出在系统成本最小前提下的航线发班时刻表，同时完成对该航线配船和发班时刻的优化。
[Abstract]:With the rise of tourism fever, the government has issued various policies to promote and accelerate the development of tourism, and the development of tourism resources in Weizhou Island has been incorporated into the national key development planning strategy. Weizhou Island, as a leader in the Beibu Gulf tourism industry, must play a leading and exemplary role in making use of its own high quality tourism conditions, resource advantages and tourism strategic value to become a powerful engine and core pillar for driving the North Sea tourism industry. For Guangxi economy brings new economic growth point. However, as the most important mode of transportation between Weizhou Island and inland, the passenger transport on water in Weizhou Island has always been the concern of Weizhou people. The single mode of transportation in and out of the island and the problem of infrastructure construction are becoming more and more serious. It has become one of the most important bottleneck problems that restrict the tourism development of the island. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to solve and optimize the existing problems of water passenger transport in Weizhou Island. In this paper, the basic principle of ship assignment on waterway passenger route is expounded, the present situation of passenger route from Beihai to Weizhou Island is analyzed, and the developing trend of passenger flow is predicted from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The qualitative forecast is from the tourism development, the national strategic development policy support and the own development demand three aspects carries on the analysis, the forecast route passenger flow will present the fast growth tendency, the quantitative forecast aspect is unifies this route the operation condition, According to the time characteristics of airline passenger volume, this paper uses the time series decomposition method to predict the future passenger volume of the route accurately, which provides reliable data for the later chapters of this paper. Under the condition of forecasting the future passenger flow of this route will have a large increase and the existing ship operation conditions remain unchanged, it is imperative to optimize the ship allocation of the route. In the third chapter, taking the lowest operating system cost as the objective function, taking passenger volume and the number of existing ships as constraints, the mathematical model is established, and the optimization results of route assignment are calculated by using Matlab software, and the optimization results are analyzed. It is also pointed out that the two defects of the optimization model, that is: 1) after the actual problem is complicated, it is difficult for the traditional optimization model to get the optimal solution. (2) the influence of the route departure time on the whole system cost and the passenger waiting time is not considered synthetically. Aiming at the defects of the above models, the fourth chapter puts forward a mathematical model which considers the operation cost and shift schedule comprehensively, and transforms the actual background into 0-1 knapsack problem, and solves it by genetic algorithm. The route schedule with minimum system cost is obtained, and the optimization of the ship assignment and departure time is completed at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U692.33

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