面向泊位共享的医院配建停车时间窗口优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 19:25

本文选题：医院 + 共享停车　；参考：《东南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着城市化的进程,机动化出行已经成为交通方式结构变化中最为主要的特点,城市中心区停车问题日益严重,停车矛盾日益突出。对于中心区的综合医院,其停车困境面临的一个严峻问题就是停车资源利用效率的低下,体现在时间利用上的不均衡。而共享停车措施利用停车泊位需求在时间上的差异性,对泊位资源进行优化整合,既能缓解医院停车高峰需求,也能对医院空闲时段的停车资源充分利用,从而缓解片区停车问题。本文以城市中心区综合医院为研究对象,通过分析医院车辆的停放时变特性,提出了医院对外开放共享的条件；对医院停车群体进行划分,基于调查问卷,研究不同群体停车行为特性及其差异性,并构建不同停车群体的停车行为选择模型,对比分析不同群体的行为选择的差别；最后,构建了共享时间窗口的预测模型,以及共享时间窗口调节方法,探讨不同停车阻抗对共享时间窗口的影响。首先,通过录像视频调查、实地车辆停放调查,获取医院进出停车数据,从停车泊位占用特性、车辆驶离特性、停放时长特性三方面,分析医院工作日、周末的停车特性,探讨不同时段停车特性的差异性；借助于Matlab软件,对不同停车时长分布进行拟合。以此为基础,提出医院开启对外共享的泊位条件、时长条件。其次,从泊位预测角度出发,确定了停车泊位预测间隔界定,对比分析不同预测模型,结合医院停车特性,基于时间序列模型,构建有效泊位占用模型,并探讨模型构建的方法及过程；基于此,借助于Eviews软件,构建医院共享时间窗口的判定方法,并确定初始的共享时间窗口。然后,结合问卷调查,根据医院停车群体的停车特性,对停车群体进行划分,从对外共享意愿的角度分析了医院人员对共享停车的态度,从停放时长、可接受步行距离、停车时最关注的因素、等待时长等方面对比分析门诊患者、急诊患者、探视群体的停车行为特性；在此基础上,以多项Logit模型为依据,构建不同群体的停车行为选择模型,利用Stata软件,进行模型参数标定,并对比分析标定结果。最后,针对初始确定的共享时间窗口,从经济学角度出发,采用时间价值的概念,提出停车时间变更容忍度以及计算方法,以停车行为选择概率为基础,构建共享时间窗口调节的方法及步骤,并探讨停车费率、步行距离、停车群体比例等不同阻抗改变下,共享时间窗口的变化情况,分析总结共享时间窗口的变化幅度、起止时刻与不同阻抗的关系。
[Abstract]:With the urbanization process , the motorized travel has become the most important feature in the structure change of the traffic mode , the parking problem in the central area of the city is increasingly serious , and the parking contradiction becomes more and more prominent .
Based on the questionnaire , the characteristics and differences of parking behaviors among different groups were studied , and the parking behavior selection model of different parking groups was constructed , and the differences of behaviors of different groups were analyzed .
Finally , the predictive model of shared time window and the adjustment method of sharing time window are constructed , and the influence of different parking impedances on the sharing time window is discussed . First , through video investigation , vehicle parking survey on the ground , obtaining the parking data of the hospital , the paper analyzes the parking characteristics of hospital working days and weekends , and discusses the difference of parking characteristics in different periods .
By means of Matlab software , the length distribution of different parking spaces is fitted . Based on this , it is proposed to open the berth condition and the time - length condition for the hospital to open the foreign share . Secondly , from the viewpoint of the berth prediction , the definition of the parking berth forecast interval is determined , the different prediction models are compared and analyzed , and the effective berth occupancy model is constructed based on the time series model , and the method and the process of the model construction are discussed .
Based on this , by means of Eviews software , the decision method of hospital sharing time window is constructed , and the initial sharing time window is determined . Then , according to the parking characteristics of the parking group in the hospital , the parking group is divided according to the parking characteristics of the hospital parking group .
Based on the Logit model , the parking behavior selection model of different groups is constructed , the model parameters are calibrated by using the Stata software , and the calibration results are compared . Finally , according to the initial determined shared time window , the method and the steps for adjusting the parking time window are put forward based on the concept of time value .
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U491.7

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