隧道施工风险分析与评价计算机辅助系统开发与应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 10:16

本文选题：隧道施工 + 风险评估　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：隧道施工项目具有建设周期长、投资巨大、技术复杂等特点,在工程建设的过程中存在许多不确定的因素,给工程项目的顺利完工带来巨大的风险。为此,对隧道施工进行风险分析与风险评估,以确保工程施工过程中的安全、工程质量以及减少不必要的经济损失尤为重要。本文对隧道施工风险分析与评价计算机辅助系统(简称辅助系统,下文同)的整体框架进行了研究,完成了隧道工程风险标准数据库和应用软件两个模块的研发。实现了对隧道施工整个过程从风险辨识、风险评估到风险决策的风险管理全过程的程序化。本文的主要研究内容和研究成果如下： (1)在风险数据库的建立方面,将风险信息、风险因素、风险处理措施等都进行标准化,存入数据库当中,供用户在风险评估过程中进行选择和参考。 (2)在风险辨识方面,采用专家调查法、核查表法、德尔菲法相结合的方法对隧道施工进行了风险辨识,一共辨识出了13个一级风险因子,68个二级风险因子,初步建立了隧道施工风险因素详表。 (3)在风险评估方法的研究方面,主要是集成了定性和定量相结合的分析方法,包括层次分析法、网络分析法、模糊网络分析法等供用户进行选择。首次将模糊网络分析法的整个风险评估流程通过计算机软件进行实现。 (4)在风险决策方面,对辨识出的二级风险因子给出了相应的建议采取的风险处理措施,以供用户在风险决策的过程中进行参考。 (5)在工程实例应用方面,结合胡麻岭特长隧道的具体情况,通过隧道施工风险分析与评价计算机辅助系统对该工程进行风险评价,得出了该工程的施工风险处于较高的风险水平的结论。
[Abstract]:Tunnel construction project has the characteristics of long construction period, huge investment and complex technology. There are many uncertain factors in the process of project construction, which brings huge risks to the successful completion of the project. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and evaluate the risk of tunnel construction in order to ensure the safety of the construction process, the quality of the project and the reduction of unnecessary economic losses. In this paper, the overall framework of the computer aided system for tunnel construction risk analysis and evaluation is studied, and the research and development of two modules of the tunnel engineering risk standard database and application software are completed. The whole process of tunnel construction is programmed from risk identification, risk assessment to risk decision. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: In the aspect of establishing the risk database, the risk information, risk factors and risk treatment measures are standardized and stored in the database for the users to choose and refer to in the process of risk assessment. 2) in the aspect of risk identification, the method of expert investigation, verification table and Delphi method is used to identify the risk of tunnel construction. A total of 13 first-grade risk factors and 68 second-level risk factors have been identified. A detailed table of risk factors for tunnel construction is established. 3) in the research of risk assessment methods, it mainly integrates qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, including Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Network Analysis (Ann), Fuzzy Network Analysis (FNN) for users to choose. For the first time, the whole risk assessment process of fuzzy network analysis is realized by computer software. 4) in the aspect of risk decision, the paper gives the corresponding risk treatment measures for the identified secondary risk factors, so as to provide the users with reference in the process of risk decision. 5) in the application of engineering example, combined with the concrete situation of Humaling extra long tunnel, the risk evaluation of the project is carried out through the computer aided system of tunnel construction risk analysis and evaluation. It is concluded that the construction risk of the project is at a high risk level.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U455

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