汽车故障事故风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 03:26

本文选题：汽车故障事故 + 风险评价　；参考：《东北林业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：由汽车故障导致的事故在道路交通事故总数中占有一定的比例,并且给人民生命和财产带来的损失风险也是巨大的。因此,科学地分析汽车故障对事故的风险影响,展开以减少或降低汽车故障导致的事故率和事故后果严重程度的研究迫在眉睫。风险评价是降低事故率及事故危害性的有效方法。论文运用风险评价理论和方法,对由汽车故障导致的事故风险进行了综合评价。首先分析了与汽车行驶安全密切相关的汽车制动安全性、操纵稳定性以及容易导致事故的主要系统总成,整理和总结了这些系统常见的故障类型以及容易造成的事故形态。其次,由于我国缺少对汽车故障导致的事故统计,评价过程中难以获取全部信息指标,并且指标的基础统计数据不全面,此系统显然是灰色的。因此选用灰聚类评价法对由汽车故障导致的事故进行风险评价,以2011年河北省所统计的汽车故障导致的事故为例,确定各故障因素所属的风险灰类等级。然而汽车是一台复杂的机械系统,任何零部件出现故障都有可能导致事故的发生,需要对事故风险进行更全面的评价。通过前面分析结果可以发现,容易导致事故的故障多发生于汽车的底盘结构,因此以汽车底盘结构各系统故障因素为例,采用层次分析法划分评价指标体系中不同指标的权重,建立评价结果集,运用德尔菲法搜集专家数据,利用模糊综合评价方法建立汽车底盘故障风险评价模型,确定了底盘故障风险等级。通过两种评价方法得到的事故风险结果基本一致,证明两种方法运用在汽车故障导致的事故风险评价中是可行的。风险评价的最终目的是对汽车故障事故进行风险控制。通过分析得出,汽车故障事故风险控制理论是基于事故致因理论的,汽车故障是事故发生的直接原因,但在直接原因的背后往往隐藏着间接原因和基础原因等更深层次的原因。针对更深层次的原因提出了相应的汽车故障事故预防措施。
[Abstract]:Accidents caused by automobile failures occupy a certain proportion in the total number of road traffic accidents, and the risk of loss to people's lives and property is also huge. Therefore, it is scientific to analyze the impact of automobile failures on the risk of accidents, and to develop a study on reducing or reducing the accident rate and the severity of the accident consequences. The risk assessment is an effective method to reduce the accident rate and the harm of the accident. The paper uses the theory and method of risk assessment to make a comprehensive evaluation of the accident risk caused by automobile failure.
Firstly, the brake safety, control stability and the main system assembly which are easy to cause accidents are analyzed, which are closely related to the safety of vehicle driving, and the common fault types and easily caused accidents are summarized and summarized.
Secondly, because of the lack of statistics on accident caused by automobile failure in China, it is difficult to obtain all the information indexes in the evaluation process, and the basic statistical data of the index are not comprehensive. This system is obviously grey. Therefore, the grey clustering evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of accidents caused by automobile failures, and the car statistics in 2011 in Hebei province. The accident caused by the fault is an example to determine the risk grey class of each fault factor. However, the automobile is a complex mechanical system. Any part of the fault may lead to the accident, and it is necessary to make a more comprehensive evaluation of the accident risk. Based on the chassis structure of automobile, taking the fault factors of each system of automobile chassis structure as an example, it uses analytic hierarchy process to divide the weight of different indexes in the evaluation index system and sets up the evaluation result set. Using Delphy Fa to collect expert data, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to build the vehicle chassis fault risk evaluation model and determine the bottom of the model. The risk grade of the disk failure is basically the same through the two evaluation methods. It is proved that the two methods are practicable in the accident risk assessment caused by automobile failures.
The ultimate goal of risk assessment is to control the risk of automobile accidents. Through the analysis, the theory of automobile accident risk control is based on the theory of accident cause, and the automobile failure is the direct cause of the accident, but the indirect cause and the underlying cause are often hidden behind the direct cause. A deeper reason is put forward for corresponding automobile accident prevention measures.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U472;U491.3

【参考文献】