电子执法环境下交通违法行为倾向模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 17:59

本文选题：交通电子执法 + 交通违法行为　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国交通事故的严重程度呈上升趋势，带来巨大的财产损失和生命威胁，对人们的日常生活带来诸多影响。研究表明，交通电子执法在我国的实施应用，，在一定程度上降低了交通违法行为的发生，但同时也是事故严重程度加剧的主要原因之一，如何控制这种现象的蔓延，使道路交通环境更加畅通、安全，是一项亟待解决的问题。目前国内外对交通电子执法的研究不多，对其设置条件下交通违法行为的研究更少，且多停留在定性分析阶段、缺乏定量研究，不利于问题的解决和道路交通系统运行安全。论文对电子执法和交通违法行为进行界定，明确了研究范围；以哈尔滨市作为调查区域，对交通违法行为的影响因素进行了问卷调查，并对问卷质量和问卷结果进行了分析和整理，为进一步研究提供了数据支撑。以调查数据为依据，对交通违法特性和该行为的影响因素进行分析，加强对交通违法行为成因的说服力；同时利用因子分析法对调查变量进行相关性分析，借助共性因子表达相关性比较高的变量，降低了分析计算的维度，为后续研究奠定基础。考虑各因子对交通违法行为的影响程度差异，建立模型之前，利用卡方检验对各因子与交通违法行为之间的显著性进行检验，剔除对其影响不显著的因子，利用显著影响因子建立交通违法行为倾向Logit模型，对模型中的参数进行了标定，并利用似然比、拟合优度和准确性等验证了模型的合理性。从分析各项因子对交通违法行为倾向的影响入手，考察各项因子删除后对模型准确性的影响，并利用表达式分析影响产生的原因，明确各因子对交通违法行为的影响程度和影响方向；针对影响程度较大的变量制定相应的改善措施，以期能减少交通违法行为的发生，创造良好的交通环境，保证人们的出行安全。
[Abstract]:In recent years , the severity of traffic accidents in China has been rising , bringing great loss of property and threatening to life . The research shows that the application of traffic electron law enforcement in our country has greatly reduced the occurrence of traffic violations .

The paper defines the law enforcement and traffic violations , and defines the scope of the study .
Taking Harbin as the investigation area , the influencing factors of traffic violations are investigated , and the quality of the questionnaire and the results of the questionnaire are analyzed and collated . The data support is provided for further research .

Based on the investigation data , the traffic law characteristics and the influencing factors of the behavior are analyzed , and the persuasive power to the cause of traffic violations is strengthened .
At the same time , a factor analysis method is used to analyze the correlation of the investigation variables . By means of the variable of the common factor expression correlation , the dimension of the analysis calculation is reduced and the foundation is laid for the subsequent study .

Considering the influence degree of each factor on traffic violations , before establishing the model , the significance of each factor and traffic violation is checked by using the Chi - square test , the factors affecting the traffic violation are eliminated , the Logit model of traffic violation tendency is established by using the significant influence factors , the parameters in the model are calibrated , and the rationality of the model is verified by using likelihood ratio , goodness and accuracy , and the like .

Based on the analysis of the influence of various factors on the tendency of traffic violations , the effects of various factors on the accuracy of the model are investigated , and the influence degree and direction of each factor on traffic violations are clarified by using the analysis of expression analysis .
The corresponding improvement measures are formulated for the variable influencing the degree of influence , so as to reduce the occurrence of traffic violations , create a good traffic environment , and guarantee people ' s travel safety .
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U495;D922.14

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