水位变化对长江中游航运物流成本的影响机理及模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 02:00

本文选题：水位变化 + 长江中游　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：受全球气候变化的影响，近年来长江流域的暴雨、干旱等极端气候频繁发生，导致长江中游极端水位的出现时间或提前或延迟，随机性不断加大，极端高、低水位持续时间发生变化。极端水位变化对长江航运的运输效率、运输安全和运输经济等方面产生了重大不利影响。在此背景下，论文从航运企业、港口企业和货主企业的角度，深入研究极端水位变化对长江中游航运物流成本所涉及的船舶运输成本和港口服务成本等的影响机理，并建立相应的影响量化模型。在长江航运的航道治理、船型发展、船舶运输组织、航运安全管理、港口建设与运营、以及长江航运物流效率等的研究中必须充分考虑极端水位变化的影响，为航运物流成本的研究提供支持，具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文主要研究工作和结论如下： 1）在调研长江中游水文数据的基础上，采用Mann-Kendall和ARIMA模型深入地分析长江中游极端水位变化的时间特征与规律，研究认为：2004～2012年长江中游各主要水文站洪水期极端水位的年比重相对比较平稳，其中城陵矶与九江站处于极端洪水水位的时间较长；除了汉口站外，其他各水文站枯水期极端水位的年比重基本呈从东向西递减趋势，其中宜昌站枯水期极端水位的年比重最大。预测2013～2020年各水文站洪水期极端水位的年比重与历年数据相比有所上升，但增幅不明显；除螺山站和九江站枯水期极端水位的年比重波动较大外，其他各水文站均表现平稳，年比重较之以前有上升的趋势，其中宜昌站和沙市站枯水期极端水位的年比重上升幅度较大。长江中游水位变化的空间特征和规律表现为长江中游各段每年枯水期处于极端水位的时间远长于洪水期，其中长江中游上半段，即宜昌-城陵矶段枯水期极端水位的持续时间长，这种趋势将在未来一段时期内仍持续存在。 2）应用系统动力学分析了航运物流系统的特征及构成，确定了航运物流系统目标，即航运物流系统的供给主动与需求变化相协调。在此基础上通过系统动力学相关理论研究了航运物流系统的组成及其系统内的因果关系，构建了主要因素间因果关系模型；研究了水位作为外生变量与航运物流系统间产生能量交换时航运物流系统内部的动态传递过程，分析了水位变化对航运物流供给子系统中航道、船舶和港口的影响；在研究航运物流成本构成的基础上，揭示了水位变化对长江中游航运物流成本所涉及的船舶运输成本和港口服务成本等的影响机理，提出了航运物流系统在水位变化影响下的适应机制。 3）从航运企业角度出发，分析了船舶运输成本的构成要素，研究了水位变化对船舶运输成本构成要素中的船舶装载率、船舶航速和船舶等航时间等因素的影响，分析了水位变化对不同船型装载率的影响规律，在一定假设的基础上提出了水位变化对船舶运输成本影响的量化模型，并应用于具体算例之中。 4）从港口企业角度出发，分析了港口企业在为船舶提供靠泊、货物装卸、储存以及其他相关业务过程中的服务成本构成要素，研究了水位变化对港口装卸效率、船舶在港停留时间的影响，，在一定假设的基础上，提出水位变化对港口服务成本影响的量化模型，并应用于具体算例之中。 5）从货主企业角度出发，分析了货物在整个航运物流过程中的航运物流成本的构成要素（包含货物物流成本和货物时间成本），研究了水位变化对货物时间成本的影响，综合水位变化对长江中游船舶运输成本和港口服务成本影响的量化模型，提出了水位变化对航运物流成本影响的综合量化模型，并应用于具体算例之中。
[Abstract]:Due to the influence of global climate change, the extreme weather, such as rainstorm and drought in the Yangtze River Basin, has occurred frequently in recent years, resulting in the time or advance or delay of the extreme water level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which has increased randomness, extreme high and low water level. In this context, from the perspective of shipping enterprises, port enterprises and cargo owners, the paper studies the influence mechanism of extreme water level changes on shipping costs and port service costs involved in shipping logistics costs in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and establishes a corresponding quantitative model of impact on the Yangtze River. It has important theoretical and practical significance to give full consideration to the influence of extreme water level changes in the study of shipping channel management, ship type development, shipping organization, shipping safety management, port construction and operation, and the efficiency of the Yangtze River shipping logistics. It is of great theoretical and practical significance. Below:
1) on the basis of the survey of the hydrological data of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the time characteristics and laws of the extreme water level change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are deeply analyzed with Mann-Kendall and ARIMA models. It is considered that the annual proportion of the extreme water level of the main hydrological stations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively stable in 2004~2012 years, and the Chenglingji and JiuJiang Railway Station are in the extreme. In addition to the HanKou Railway Station, the annual proportion of the extreme water level in the dry water period of other hydrological stations is basically from the east to the west, and the annual proportion of the extreme water level of the YiChang Railway Station is the largest. There is no obvious amplitude; the annual gravity fluctuation of the extreme water level of the snail mountain station and the JiuJiang Railway Station is relatively large, and the other hydrological stations are stable, and the annual proportion is higher than before, and the annual proportion of the extreme water level of YiChang Railway Station and Shashi station is higher than that of YiChang Railway Station.
The spatial characteristics and laws of the water level change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River show that the time of the extreme water level in the middle reaches of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is far longer than the flood period, in which the last half of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, that is, the extreme water level in the dry period of the Yichang Chenglingji section, will continue to persist in the period of no period of time.
2) the characteristics and composition of shipping logistics system are analyzed by system dynamics, and the target of shipping logistics system is determined, that is, the supply of shipping logistics system is coordinated with the change of demand. On this basis, the composition of shipping logistics system and the causality in the system are studied through the theory of system dynamics, and the main causes are built. The dynamic transfer process of the water level as an external variable and the shipping logistics system is studied. The influence of the water level change on the navigation channel, the ship and the port in the shipping logistics supply subsystem is analyzed. The influence mechanism of position change on shipping cost and port service cost involved in shipping logistics cost in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is proposed, and the adaptation mechanism of shipping logistics system under the influence of water level changes is put forward.
3) from the point of view of shipping enterprises, the constituent elements of ship transportation cost are analyzed, and the influence of water level change on ship loading rate, ship speed and ship time and so on are studied, and the influence rules of water level change on the loading rate of different ship types are analyzed. On the basis of certain assumptions, the effect of water level change is put forward. The quantitative model of the influence of water level change on ship transportation cost is applied to a specific example.
4) from the port enterprise point of view, this paper analyzes the service cost components of the port enterprises in the process of providing berth, cargo handling, storage and other related business, and studies the effect of water level change on port handling efficiency and the residence time of ships in port. On the basis of a set hypothesis, the change of water level to the port service is put forward. The quantitative model of the impact is applied to a specific example.
5) from the point of view of the cargo owner, this paper analyzes the components of the shipping logistics cost in the whole shipping logistics process, including the logistics cost and the time cost of the goods, and studies the influence of the change of the water level on the time cost of the goods, and the quantification of the influence of the comprehensive water level on the shipping cost and the port service cost of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. A comprehensive quantitative model of the influence of water level change on shipping logistics cost is proposed and applied to a specific example.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F552.5

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