高速公路事故条件下交通诱导关键技术研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 20:21

本文选题：高速公路 + 交通事故　；参考：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国高速公路运输事业的快速发展给人们的出行带来很大的便利，同时不断推动着各地区经济的发展。另一方面，高速公路的事故发生率也呈现居高不下的形势。由于高速公路上行车速度较快，一旦发生交通事故，所带来的财产损失、人员伤亡不可估量，而由交通事故引发的交通拥堵也屡见不鲜。高速公路事故引发的交通拥堵，不仅会对高速公路上的出行者造成极大的出行延误，严重时其影响会蔓延至高速公路所处路网的其他道路上，从而降低整个路网的通行能力。交通诱导作为疏散交通的重要措施，能够有效地降低交通事故拥堵造成的损失，提高路网的整体运行效率。本文首先分析了高速公路事故容易引发拥堵、难于救援的特点，进而提出了不同服务水平、事故形态下交通诱导的适用性，，并分析了对于不同的出行者而言其主要的交通诱导需求。通过问卷调查获得驾驶员对交通诱导心理认知的数据，分析驾驶员个人属性对其接受交通诱导意愿的影响，确定驾驶员接受交通诱导的时间忍耐度、节约时间界限及绕行距离界限。将调查分析的结果应用到分流点、分流路径的确定当中，并根据所确定的分流路径剩余通行能力，判断高速公路可以分流的交通量。运用统计软件SPSS拟合出诱导分流的logit离散选择模型。基于一系列的理论分析，以京昆高速公路某处发生事故为例，制定适宜的交通诱导方案。通过拟合的logit模型确定每条分流路径的分流量，一定程度上符合驾驶员接受交通诱导的意愿，后续还需进一步地改善调查方案及模型的构建方法。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of expressway transportation in China brings great convenience for people to travel, and promotes the development of economy in various regions. On the other hand, the accident rate of highway also presents high situation. Because of the high speed on the freeway, once the traffic accident occurs, the property loss and casualties are inestimable, and the traffic jam caused by the traffic accident is also common. The traffic jam caused by the expressway accident will not only cause great travel delay to the travelers on the expressway, but also will spread to other roads of the highway network when serious, thus reducing the capacity of the whole network. As an important measure of evacuation traffic, traffic guidance can effectively reduce the loss caused by traffic accident congestion and improve the overall operation efficiency of the road network. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of freeway accidents which are easy to cause congestion and difficult to rescue, and then puts forward the applicability of traffic guidance under different service levels and accident patterns. The main traffic guidance needs for different travelers are analyzed. The data of drivers' psychological cognition to traffic guidance were obtained by questionnaire, and the influence of drivers' personal attributes on their willingness to accept traffic guidance was analyzed, and the time tolerance of drivers to traffic guidance was determined. Save time limit and circumvent distance limit. The results of investigation and analysis are applied to the determination of diversion points and diverging paths. According to the determined residual capacity of diversion paths, the traffic volume of freeway can be separated is judged. The logit discrete selection model of induced shunt was fitted by statistical software SPSS. Based on a series of theoretical analysis, a suitable traffic guidance scheme was established by taking an accident on Beijing-Kunming Expressway as an example. The fitting logit model is used to determine the flow fraction of each shunt path to a certain extent in accordance with the will of the driver to accept traffic guidance. Further improvement of the investigation scheme and the construction method of the model are needed in the follow-up.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U495;U491.3

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