高速公路BOT-EPC模式的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:39

本文选题：高速公路 + BOT-EPC模式　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路与国民经济的发展息息相关,是我国经济发展的重要基础。高速公路具有周期长、工程量大、技术要求高、涉及的参与方众多、投资额大等特点；而且在施工过程中,不确定因素多,并不断变化,产生的风险因素影响工程项目的顺利实施。为了确定高速公路建设项目的可行性,以获取预期的经济、社会效益,需要对高速公路建设进行风险管理研究。本文首先从项目管理理论出发,介绍常用的管理模式即BOT模式和EPC模式,主要分析它们在项目上的工作特征和工作流程。在这两种模式的基础上,结合实际工程资料以及BOT-EPC模式在高速公路的运用情况,归纳该模式的运作过程,总结其相对其他模式的优势和适用范围。通过查阅国内外风险管理资料,对BOT-EPC模式项目的风险管理进行系统的分析和研究。以BOT-EPC模式下高速公路风险管理为研究对象,详细分析高速公路项目的风险管理全过程。从风险的基本理论出发,运用定性方法和定量方法描述风险和划分风险等级,按风险三维分解图将项目风险分类。然后研究工程项目常用的风险识别、风险评价方法。在高速公路BOT-EPC模式风险评价中,分析总结了该模式所面临的主要风险因素,详细阐述了其风险的来源。运用灰色系统理论、基于群体决策支持的风险评价系统,对其风险识别和风险评价进行了研究。考虑到高速公路工程项目风险的模糊性和信息的不确定性,建立BOT-EPC项目模糊综合评判的风险评价模型。本文以GF高速公路建设项目为实例,根据项目实际情况得出二级风险评价指标体系。运用专家调查法将抽象的风险因素量化来评定风险等级,通过建立模糊评价模型,进行项目综合评价,判断此项目的可行性,分析各个风险因素对项目影响程度,从而提前采取相应风险应对策略和工程项目风险控制措施。
[Abstract]:Expressway and the development of national economy are closely linked, is the important foundation of economic development of our country. Expressway has the characteristics of long period, large amount of engineering, high technical requirements, large number of participants involved, large investment and so on, and in the process of construction, there are many uncertain factors, which are constantly changing. The risk factors will affect the smooth implementation of the project. In order to determine the feasibility of expressway construction project and obtain the expected economic and social benefits, it is necessary to study the risk management of expressway construction. Based on the theory of project management, this paper first introduces the commonly used management modes, namely, BOT mode and EPC mode, and mainly analyzes their working characteristics and workflow on the project. On the basis of the two models, combined with the actual engineering data and the application of the BOT-EPC model in the expressway, the operating process of the model is summarized, and the advantages and applicable scope of the model compared with other models are summarized. Through consulting the domestic and foreign risk management data, this paper makes a systematic analysis and research on the risk management of BOT-EPC project. Taking expressway risk management under BOT-EPC mode as the research object, the whole process of expressway project risk management is analyzed in detail. Based on the basic theory of risk, the qualitative method and quantitative method are used to describe the risk and classify the risk grade, and the project risk is classified according to the risk three-dimensional decomposition graph. Then study the common risk identification and risk evaluation methods of engineering projects. In the risk assessment of expressway BOT-EPC model, the main risk factors facing the model are analyzed and summarized, and the origin of the risk is expounded in detail. Based on the grey system theory, the risk identification and risk evaluation are studied based on the group decision support risk evaluation system. Considering the fuzziness of highway project risk and the uncertainty of information, the risk evaluation model of BOT-EPC project fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. This paper takes GF expressway construction project as an example, according to the actual situation of the project, obtains the secondary risk evaluation index system. The abstract risk factors are quantified by the expert investigation method to evaluate the risk grade. Through the establishment of fuzzy evaluation model and the comprehensive evaluation of the project, the feasibility of the project is judged, and the influence of each risk factor on the project is analyzed. In order to take the corresponding risk response strategy and project risk control measures ahead of time.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U415.1

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