基于层次分析和模糊综合评价的区域危险品道路运输事故概率评估

发布时间：2018-06-11 19:31

本文选题：危险品道路运输 + 层次分析　；参考：《安全与环境工程》2014年06期

【摘要】：考虑到我国现阶段可利用的危险品道路运输事故的历史数据十分有限,本文结合特定路段的实际情况,基于层次分析法和二级模糊综合评价法,建立了一种新的危险品道路运输事故概率评估方法。首先利用层次分析法,除了对特定路段的危险品、驾驶人员、运输车辆及罐体、道路及环境以及道路实时管理等常规影响因素进行更全面的分析外,还首次引入人为故意破坏等特殊影响因素,并根据各因素在危险品道路运输事故中的影响大小,采用1~9标度法确定各影响因素的权重;然后根据模糊数学理论,建立不同影响因素的隶属度函数;最后通过二级模糊综合评价形成危险品道路运输事故概率评估计算方法。通过实例研究表明,该方法可为危险品道路运输事故概率评估研究提供新的思路,为特定区域危险品道路运输风险管理工作的开展和评估提供指导,也有助于危险品运输管理决策支持系统的开发。
[Abstract]:Considering the limited historical data of road transportation accidents of dangerous goods available in our country at the present stage, this paper combines the actual situation of specific sections of roads, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. A new method for evaluating the probability of road traffic accidents of dangerous goods is established. First of all, the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used to analyze more comprehensively the conventional influencing factors, such as dangerous goods, drivers, transport vehicles and tanks, roads and environment, and real-time management of roads. It is also the first time to introduce some special factors, such as intentional destruction, and to determine the weight of each factor according to the influence of each factor in the road transportation accident of dangerous goods, and then according to the theory of fuzzy mathematics, The membership function of different influencing factors is established, and the probability evaluation method of dangerous goods road transportation accident is formed through the two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The case study shows that this method can provide a new idea for the study of the probability assessment of dangerous goods road transport accidents, and provide guidance for the development and evaluation of dangerous goods road transport risk management in specific regions. It is also helpful to the development of dangerous goods transportation management decision support system.
【作者单位】：南京大学环境学院;
【分类号】：U492.81

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