桥梁运营期汽车燃烧风险概率模型及应用

发布时间：2018-06-13 03:41

本文选题：悬索桥 + 风险分析　；参考：《武汉理工大学学报》2014年04期

【摘要】：利用模糊故障树风险分析方法对桥梁运营期汽车燃烧事故概率进行预测。根据故障树逻辑关系构建了汽车燃烧风险因素的模糊故障树;采用模糊数表述故障树基本事件发生概率,克服了故障树底事件发生概率不易确定的困难,提出了基于模糊故障树原理的桥梁运营期汽车燃烧风险概率模型,并将其应用到武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥运营期汽车燃烧风险分析。结果表明,武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥发生油罐车燃烧事故的概率约为44.124年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生2.26次;小汽车发生燃烧事故的概率约为4.121年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生24.27次;客车发生燃烧事故的概率约为9.286年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生10.78次;货车发生燃烧事故的概率约为24.041年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生4.16次。研究结果可为桥梁抗火设计与防范措施提供理论决策依据。
[Abstract]:The risk analysis method of fuzzy fault tree is used to predict the probability of vehicle combustion accident in bridge operation period. According to the logic relation of fault tree, the fuzzy fault tree of automobile combustion risk factor is constructed, and the probability of occurrence of basic event in fault tree is expressed by fuzzy number, which overcomes the difficulty that the probability of occurrence of event in the bottom of fault tree is difficult to determine. Based on the principle of fuzzy fault tree, this paper presents a probability model of vehicle combustion risk in bridge operation period, and applies it to the analysis of vehicle combustion risk in operation period of Changjiang River Bridge in Paraozhou, Wuhan. The results show that the probability of fuel tank car burning accident is about 44.124 years / time, 2.26 times in the 100-year design reference period, and 4.121 years per car accident. In the 100-year design reference period, 24.27 accidents occur, the probability of bus burning accidents is about 9.286 years, and the probability of truck burning accidents is about 24.041 years during the 100-year design reference period. Occurred 4.16 times during the 100-year design reference period. The results can provide theoretical basis for bridge fire resistance design and preventive measures.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学道路桥梁与结构工程湖北省重点实验室;
【基金】：高等学校博士点专项基金(20110143110016) 武汉市科技攻关项目(201160923308)
【分类号】：U461.91;U447

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