隧道开挖中地质风险评估的敏感性分析（英文）

发布时间：2018-06-17 10:25

本文选题：隧道工程 + 风险管理　；参考：《中国公路学报》2016年08期

【摘要】：在地下开挖工程进行中,地质风险评估是至关重要却也是最薄弱的环节。由于地下结构的不确定性、复杂性以及结构间多种关联性,对地质结构进行风险评估既困难又耗费成本。在对超大型隧道开挖工程进行风险评估时,为了降低前期准备过程耗费的时间与成本,风险管理经理更倾向于开挖重复地质断面时将其结构视为相似,并认为时间和成本的变化遵从线性关系。但事实上在对地质结构整体进行风险评估时,各个风险参数的相互依赖性和敏感性是未知的。针对进行地质风险评估时风险参数的敏感性和其会引起的变化,采用Monte Carlo模拟法确定了参与地质风险评估的相关风险参数的敏感性和波动性,例如开挖长度、岩石结构排列以及开挖方法等。采用的地质模型和场景以地质学家提出相关假设和较为常规的地质构造为基础。为了便于整合地质风险评估的各种因素,模拟时将不确定性量化为开挖进尺和成本。通过不同场景的模拟,确定地质风险评估中各个参数的敏感性。研究结果表明:地质结构和开挖进尺皆为独立影响因素,但当在不同的地质结构开挖长度相等时,其排列顺序却对开挖进尺和成本影响不大;在开挖重复地质结构时,开挖进尺和成本的变化遵从非线性关系。研究结果提供了一个对风险进行评估和管理的有效系统,可帮助决策者在管理大型复杂的隧道开挖项目时做出更好的判断。
[Abstract]:Geological risk assessment is the most important but also the weakest link in underground excavation. Because of the uncertainty, complexity and various correlations of underground structures, it is difficult and costly to assess the risk of geological structures. In order to reduce the time and cost of early preparation, risk management managers are more inclined to regard the structure of super-large tunnel excavation as similar when excavation is repeated geological section, in order to reduce the time and cost of the preparatory process. The change of time and cost follows a linear relationship. But in fact, the interdependence and sensitivity of each risk parameter is unknown in the risk assessment of geological structure as a whole. In view of the sensitivity and variation of risk parameters in geological risk assessment, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to determine the sensitivity and volatility of risk parameters involved in geological risk assessment, such as excavation length. Rock structure arrangement and excavation method. The geological models and scenes adopted are based on the relevant hypotheses and relatively conventional geological structures put forward by geologists. In order to integrate various factors of geological risk assessment, uncertainty is quantified as excavation scale and cost. The sensitivity of each parameter in geological risk assessment is determined by simulation of different scenarios. The results show that the geological structure and the excavation scale are independent factors, but when the excavation length of different geological structures is equal, the order of the geological structure has little effect on the excavation advance and cost, and in the case of repeated geological structure excavation, The variation of the scale and cost of the excavation follows a nonlinear relationship. The results of the study provide an effective system for risk assessment and management, which can help decision makers to make a better judgment in managing large and complex tunnel excavation projects.
【作者单位】：长安大学建筑工程学院;南洋理工大学土木工程学院;
【基金】：funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 310828151065,310828161008) the Science and Technology Research and Development Projects of Yan'an City (No.2015KG-03) the Construction of Science and Technology Plan Projects of Xi'an City(No.SJW2015-25)
【分类号】：U455.4

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