突发事件下城市道路交通态势评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 18:54

本文选题：城市道路 + 交通突发事件　；参考：《南京理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高,城市规模不断扩大,机动车保有量日益剧增,交通突发事件的发生概率也随之增加。交通突发事件不仅会造成人员伤亡和财产损失,还会对城市路网交通造成重大影响。因此,如何根据事件现场反馈和提取的信息,做好突发事件下的交通态势评估工作,为应急部门的快速响应和正确决策提供依据,减小交通突发事件造成的影响和损失,是交通应急管理急需研究的问题。首先,本文系统阐述了突发事件和城市道路交通突发事件相关理论,在对交通突发事件进行单因素致因分析的基础上,运用系统工程理论和事故致因理论,构建了“人-车-交通环境”三因素耦合致因模型。其次,将军事领域的态势评估概念和技术引入智能交通领域,给出了城市道路交通突发事件态势评估的定义；基于态势评估的功能模型,构建了交通突发事件态势评估的研究框架,评估流程分为态势感知理解、交通态势预测和交通态势评价三个阶段；综合考虑事件要素、环境要素、路网要素和运作要素等影响因素,建立了态势要素和交通态势指标体系,为下步的交通态势预测和评价奠定基础。然后,在交通态势预测阶段引入贝叶斯网络,以事件持续时间指标为例,通过确定节点变量、网络拓扑结构及条件概率分布,进而建立了基于贝叶斯网的事件持续时间预测模型,采用GeNIe2.0软件进行了案例仿真分析。最后,建立了交通态势模糊综合评价模型,通过案例分析验证了模型的可行性和适应性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the scale of cities is expanding, the number of motor vehicles is increasing rapidly, and the probability of traffic emergencies is also increasing. Traffic emergencies will not only cause casualties and property losses, but also have a significant impact on urban road network traffic. Therefore, according to the feedback and information extracted from the scene, how to do the traffic situation assessment under the emergency, provide the basis for the rapid response and correct decision of the emergency department, and reduce the impact and loss caused by the traffic emergency. It is an urgent problem in traffic emergency management. First of all, this paper systematically describes the emergency and urban road traffic emergencies related theories, on the basis of single-factor analysis of traffic emergencies, the use of system engineering theory and accident cause theory. A three-factor coupled cause model of man-car-traffic environment is constructed. Secondly, the concept and technology of situation assessment in military field is introduced into the field of intelligent transportation, and the definition of emergency situation assessment of urban road traffic is given, which is based on the functional model of situation assessment. The research framework of traffic emergency situation assessment is constructed. The evaluation process is divided into three stages: situation awareness understanding, traffic situation prediction and traffic situation evaluation. The influence factors, such as road network elements and operation factors, are established, and the index system of situation and traffic situation is established, which lays a foundation for the prediction and evaluation of traffic situation in the next step. Then, Bayesian network is introduced in the phase of traffic situation prediction. Taking the event duration index as an example, the node variables, network topology and conditional probability distribution are determined. Furthermore, the prediction model of event duration based on Bayesian network is established, and the case simulation analysis is carried out by using the software of Genie 2.0. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of traffic situation is established, and the feasibility and adaptability of the model are verified by case analysis.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】