城际铁路开通对旅客出行方式选择的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 10:24

本文选题：城际铁路 + 旅客出行选择　；参考：《大连交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在社会经济的普遍高速发展的影响下,人们在日常出行中对不同出行方式的安全性、舒适性、经济性等服务指标的考量日益加深,与此同时,在全世界加强对环境保护的趋势下,我国在追求经济大发展的同时也对生活环境、能源消耗等方面有更多思考。在此情况下,着力发展经济性与环保性共赢的产业就至关重要。因此,大规模建设经济效益好环境污染小的城际铁路线势在必行。城际铁路的修建、运行对我国工业自主水平的提高、体现我国交通运输新面貌、缓解城际交通压力、提高铁路运输效率、舒适度及服务质量具有积极促进作用。由于我国对城际铁路的研究起步较晚而且研究不深入,所以,许多问题还亟需更深一步探讨。本文结合城际铁路领域的最新研究方法,借鉴已有理论,选择关于我国城际铁路研究领域中与实际相关性比较大的角度,即城际铁路的开通对旅客出行的方式选择的影响进行研究。本文主要内容分四部分,.第一部分介绍了城际铁路相关概念及国内外城际铁路发展现状,提出文章研究重点、意义,并结合我国国情,分析了城际铁路产生的背景以及城际铁路开通后带来的经济效益。第二部分重点分析了影响旅客出行方式的微观及宏观因素以及城际铁路开通后,城际旅客选择出行方式的影响因素。根据logit模型,给出了城际铁路开通前后旅客对不同交通出行方式选择变化的计算模型,并以武黄城际铁路为例,应用模型进行了实际计算。由计算结果得出旅客出行选择的具体变化：城际铁路开通后,城际旅客选择铁路出行所占比例大大提高。第三部分基于诱增交通量理论,对城际铁路近期诱增客流量进行预测,应用重力模型结合武黄城际铁路实例对其诱增客流进行预测。最后,在城际铁路开通后对其他城际出行方式的影响进行分析,尤其针对公路运输旅客分担率显著下降的现象,结合我国国情,给出经营建议。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of the rapid and rapid development of the social economy, people have more and more attention to the safety, comfort and economy of different travel modes in daily travel. At the same time, under the trend of strengthening environmental protection in the world, our country is pursuing the great economic development and also on the living environment, energy consumption and so on. There is more thinking. In this case, it is essential to focus on the development of a win-win industry with economic and environmental protection. Therefore, it is imperative to build an intercity railway with a good economic benefit and small environmental pollution. The construction of intercity railway, the improvement of the independent level of China's industry, the new appearance of transportation and transportation in China, and the relief of intercity traffic Pressure can improve railway transport efficiency, comfort and service quality.
Because of the late and not thorough research on the intercity railway in China, many problems still need to be further discussed. This paper, combining the latest research methods in the intercity railway field, draws on the existing theories, and chooses a relatively large angle of Intercity Railway Research in the field of intercity railway research, that is, the opening of the intercity railway. The influence of passenger travel mode selection is studied.
The main content of this article is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the concept of intercity railway and the development of intercity railway at home and abroad, puts forward the emphasis and significance of the article, and analyzes the background of the intercity railway and the economic benefits brought by the intercity railway after the opening of the city.
The second part focuses on the analysis of the micro and macro factors affecting the mode of passenger travel and the influencing factors of the intercity passengers' choice of travel modes after the intercity railway is opened. According to the logit model, the calculation model of the passenger travel mode selection changes before and after the opening of the intercity railway is given, and the application of the Wuhan City intercity railway as an example is given. The actual calculation of the model is carried out. The specific change of passenger travel choice is obtained from the calculation results: after the opening of intercity railway, the proportion of intercity passengers to choose railway travel is greatly increased.
The third part, based on the theory of induced traffic volume, predicts the passenger flow of Intercity Railway in the near future, and forecasts the induced passenger flow by using the gravity model combined with the case of the Wuhan City intercity railway.
Finally, after the intercity railway is opened, the influence of other intercity travel modes is analyzed, especially in the light of the phenomenon that the passenger sharing rate of the highway transportation is significantly reduced, and the management suggestions are given in combination with the national conditions of our country.
【学位授予单位】：大连交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12

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