基于风险预测的受限航道交通组织研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 19:13

本文选题：风险预测 + 置信规则　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水路交通运输是综合运输体系和水资源综合利用的重要组成部分，在世界发展历程中起到了举足轻重的作用。随着船舶通航密度逐年攀升，同时船舶专业化、大型化、高速化发展迅速，使得航道资源等硬件条件无法随之匹配，部分航道通航条件受限，事故频发，并出现不同程度的拥堵，通航风险增加。如何更好的识别和控制通航风险、提高船舶运行效率、开展科学高效的交通组织已经成为当下水路交通研究领域的核心关注。国内外学者面向水路交通组织已有大量研究，其中交通流及交通组织的研究主要分为微观和宏观两个方面。微观上，相关研究主要关注船舶避碰问题，通过算法实现智能避碰，从而降低通航风险；宏观上，相关研究多集中于交汇水域，并且多关注的是船舶路径选择最优化的问题。同时，交通组织的相关现有研究或较少考虑风险因素，或从风险评价的角度表征交通组织的量化水平，因此，风险的结果对于交通组织存在滞后性。本文核心关注的水路交通组织面向受限航道水域，立足于宏观的研究视角，，从交通组织管理的角度出发，同时参考通航风险和通航效率双指标，构建水路交通组织的逻辑模型。其中，文章的重心偏向于通航风险研究，侧重关注受限航道或航段的船舶可接收能力和船舶航向秩序问题，选取三个关键风险因子，引入置信规则库的相关算法，实现风险的预测；与此同时，基于受限航道运行状态及特征的分析，利用ARENA软件实现仿真过程，得出排队队长等通航效率参数。基于此，实现交通组织的模型构建，并给出模型运转的流程。本文提出的交通组织模型基于风险预测，具有一定的前瞻性，同时较好的修正了人为因素的干扰；逻辑模型的运转流程对于宏观交通组织更具可操作性，相关研究对交通组织具有积极的研究意义和应用价值。
[Abstract]:Waterway transportation is an important part of integrated transportation system and comprehensive utilization of water resources, which plays an important role in the development of the world. With the increase of ship traffic density and the rapid development of ship specialization, large scale and high speed, the hardware conditions such as channel resources can not be matched with each other, and some navigation conditions are restricted and accidents occur frequently. And appear different degree of congestion, traffic risk increased. How to better identify and control navigation risks, improve the efficiency of ship operation, and develop scientific and efficient traffic organization has become the core concern in the field of waterway traffic research. Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on waterway traffic organization, in which traffic flow and traffic organization are mainly divided into micro and macro aspects. On the micro level, the related research mainly focuses on the collision avoidance problem of ships, realizes the intelligent collision avoidance problem through the algorithm, thus reduces the navigable risk; in the macroscopic view, the related research mostly focuses on the intersection waters, and pays more attention to the optimization of the ship path selection. At the same time, the existing research on traffic organization either takes little consideration of risk factors or represents the quantification level of traffic organization from the angle of risk evaluation. Therefore, the result of risk has lag for traffic organization. In this paper, waterway traffic organization, which is focused on the restricted waterway waters, is based on the macroscopic research angle, from the angle of traffic organization and management, and at the same time, the logical model of waterway traffic organization is constructed by referring to the double indexes of navigation risk and navigation efficiency. Among them, the center of gravity of this paper is biased towards the study of navigable risk, focusing on the problems of ship acceptability and ship heading order of restricted waterway or section, selecting three key risk factors, and introducing the relevant algorithm of confidence rule base. At the same time, based on the analysis of the running state and characteristics of restricted waterway, the simulation process is realized by using Arina software, and the navigable efficiency parameters such as queue length are obtained. Based on this, the model construction of traffic organization is realized, and the process of model operation is given. The traffic organization model proposed in this paper is based on risk prediction, and has some foresight, and at the same time, it corrects the interference of human factors, and the operation flow of the logical model is more operable for macro-traffic organization. The related research has the positive significance and the application value to the traffic organization.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U692

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