高速公路施工区交通流特性与安全风险分析

发布时间：2018-06-25 23:20

本文选题：施工区 + 交通流特性　；参考：《长安大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：截至2013年底，全国公路总里程达到424万公里，其中普通国道17.3万公里，国家高速公路10.5万公里。随着国家高速公路里程增加和早期修建的高速公路相继进行日常养护、大中修或改扩建，高速公路施工区已成为高速公路系统的重要组成部分。由于高速公路施工区通常并不中断日常交通，使得施工区对日常车流形成干扰，，引起的交通问题也愈加突出，主要表现在道路通行能力折减和交通事故率上升两个方面，因此施工区也被视为高速公路的瓶颈段之一。高速公路施工区特殊的道路交通环境造成其交通流特征比正常基本路段更为复杂，车辆减速、车流强制性合流、车流重分布以及施工人员和设备与车流之间的相互干扰等对施工区交通特性均有明显的影响，是诱发高速公路交通事故的主要原因之一。因此，开展高速公路施工区交通运行规律研究、道路通行能力计算和安全风险分析为交通管理和安全保障措施提供基础理论依据和技术支持，具有一定的实践意义。本文以陕西省交通厅科技项目黄土地区高速公路改扩建关键技术研究子项目四为依托，主体内容分为施工区交通特性研究和施工区安全风险分析两大部分。在施工区交通特性研究方面，本文重点分析了车头时距和车速两项交通流参数，对施工区交通流运行规律和分布模型进行了深入研究。施工区车头时距分布规律方面，根据车流在施工区的集散特征，对车头时距进行统计分析，分析施工区车头时距的变化规律及其影响因素。基于此本文进一步提出移位韦布尔修正分布模型并对新增移位系数取值进行分析。论文根据车头时距的分布规律确定所研究施工区的交通运行状态，计算施工区道路通行能力并与国内其他研究结果进行对比。施工区运行车速分布规律方面，论文根据大量调查数据分别分析了施工区混合车流和单一车流车速分布特性和不同区段、车型之间的车速变化规律。研究结果表明，交通流参数随着施工区各区段呈现规律性变化，同时道路通行能力比正常高速公路基本路段明显偏低，车流极易出现跟驰状态，在上述情况下，车速变化频繁和车流换道是施工区车辆间产生交通冲突的主要原因之一。施工区安全风险分析方面，论文以施工区交通特性为研究基础对施工区进行安全风险分析，包括宏观风险分析和微观交通冲突风险分析。论文基于施工区车速分布规律，宏观风险分析方法和指标，从第85%位车速差V85与相对事故风险度，车速连续性及差异显著性和车速标准差与交通事故率等三个方面进行宏观风险分析。研究结果表明：由于施工区不同区段断面之间车速变化幅度较大和不同车型之间速度差异性较大，造成施工区交通安全的整体水平偏低，尤其是警告区、上游过渡区和作业区的道路交通事故风险度偏高。微观冲突风险分析方面，本文根据车辆在施工区的运行轨迹，对施工区冲突点进行分析并归类为：跟驰追尾冲突、强制性换道冲突和合流挤车换道冲突。对于跟驰追尾冲突，论文引入在车辆减速情况下驾驶人特性的相关研究结果，建立了碰撞时间函数（TTC）与减速度之间的关系模型并以此对施工区TTC的不同等级进行划分（安全：12.0s、较为安全：7.0~12.0s、一般冲突：4.0~7.0s和严重冲突：4.0s）。根据划分结果，对施工区的上游过渡区和作业区进行了跟驰追尾冲突风险分析，结果表明：上游过渡区和缓冲区的跟驰追尾冲突风险性较高。强制性换道冲突风险方面，论文给出了施工区限速建议值并根据超速车辆的比例进行风险分析。挤车换道冲突风险方面，根据冲突产生的临界条件，结合微观交通流特点和车辆最大减速度分布规律，对不同车速情况下挤车换道的冲突风险等级进行划分（安全、较为安全、一般冲突、严重冲突）。
[Abstract]:By the end of 2013, the national highway has a total mileage of 4 million 240 thousand kilometers, of which the general national road is 173 thousand kilometers and the national highway is 105 thousand kilometers. With the increase of the mileage and the early construction of the highway, the highway has been maintained in succession. The highway construction area has become an important component of the highway system. Part. Because the highway construction area usually does not interrupt the daily traffic, the construction area is disturbing to the daily traffic, and the traffic problems are becoming more and more prominent, mainly manifested in two aspects of the road capacity reduction and the increase of traffic accident rate, so the construction area is also regarded as one of the bottleneck segments of the expressway.
The special road traffic environment in the expressway construction area causes the traffic flow characteristic more complex than the normal basic section, the vehicle deceleration, the traffic flow compulsory confluence, the vehicle flow redistribution, the mutual interference between the construction personnel and the equipment and the traffic flow, and so on, have obvious influence on the traffic characteristics of the construction area, which is the cause of the highway traffic accident. It is one of the main reasons. Therefore, it is of practical significance to carry out the research on the traffic operation law of the expressway construction area, the calculation of road capacity and the safety risk analysis to provide the basic theoretical basis and technical support for the traffic management and safety protection measures. This article is based on the reconstruction and extension of the highway in the loess area of Shaanxi Jiao Tong Hall. The key technology research sub item four relies on, the main content divides into the construction area traffic characteristic research and the construction area security risk analysis two major parts.
In the study of traffic characteristics in the construction area, this paper focuses on the analysis of two traffic flow parameters of the headway and speed of the headway, and deeply studies the running law and distribution model of the traffic flow in the construction area. In the aspect of the distribution of the headway in the construction area, according to the distribution of the traffic flow in the construction area, the statistical analysis of the headway is carried out and the construction is analyzed. Based on this paper, the shift Weber modified distribution model is further proposed and the value of the new shift coefficient is analyzed. According to the distribution rule of the head time distance, the paper determines the traffic operation state of the construction area, and calculates the road capacity in the construction area and other research in China. The results are compared. According to a large number of investigation data, the velocity distribution characteristics of mixed traffic flow and single traffic flow and different sections of the construction area and the speed change law are analyzed in the construction area. The results show that the traffic flow parameters are regularly changed along with the sections of the construction area, and the road is at the same time. The road capacity is obviously lower than the basic section of the normal highway, and the car flow is very easy to follow the following state. Under the above circumstances, the frequent change of vehicle speed and the change of the traffic flow are one of the main reasons for the traffic conflict between the vehicles in the construction area.
In the safety risk analysis of construction area, the paper analyzes the safety risk of construction area based on the traffic characteristics of construction area, including macro risk analysis and micro traffic conflict risk analysis. The paper is based on the speed distribution law of the construction area, the macro risk analysis method and the index, from the 85% bit speed difference V85 and the relative accident risk degree, The research results show that the overall level of traffic safety in the construction area is low, especially the police. The results show that the speed variation between the sections of different sections of the construction area and the speed difference between the different types of vehicles are large, and the traffic safety in the construction area is low, especially the police. The risk level of traffic accidents in upstream transition area and operation area is high.
In the analysis of micro conflict risk, according to the running track of the vehicle in the construction area, this paper analyzes and classifies the conflict points in the construction area as follows: the conflict with the following and following the tail, the forced change of the road and the conflict of the change of the road. The relationship model between the collision time function (TTC) and the speed reduction is divided into different grades of the construction area TTC (Security: 12.0s, safer: 7.0~12.0s, general conflict: 4.0~7.0s and serious conflict: 4.0s). According to the result, the risk analysis of the collision and rear end conflict between the upstream crossing area and the operation area of the construction area is carried out. The results show that the risk of collision and rear end conflict between upstream transition zone and buffer zone is higher. The paper gives the speed limit of construction zone and risk analysis according to the proportion of speeding vehicles. The maximum deceleration distribution rule of a vehicle is used to divide the conflict risk level of the car changing lane under different vehicle speeds (safety, safety, general conflict, serious conflict).
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.112

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