基于模糊网络分析法的LNG码头建设安全性研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 17:12

本文选题：模糊网络分析法 + LNG码头　；参考：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的不断发展,天然气这一清洁能源逐渐占据我国新能源结构的主体,使天然气的海上运输量、LNG船舶数量不断增加。但由于LNG本身具有燃烧爆炸后危险性大、容易泄露、造成海难事故等特性,决定了LNG船舶在运输和停靠泊位过程中存在较大风险。故在制定完善的操作规范同时,LNG码头建设的安全性也起到不可忽视的作用。然而,影响LNG码头建设安全的因素较多,故对这些因素进行归类并加以分析,为LNG码头的安全建设提供一个较为可靠的评判依据,为保障海上财产人命安全、防止污染起到重大意义。本论文主要完成以下研究内容： (1)评价方法的选取 LNG码头建设的安全性是一个复杂的系统问题,对其评价能否准确,在一定程度上受到所采用评价方法的影响,对同一个问题应用不同方法进行评价,最后得到的结论可能存在较大的差异。故本文通过对多种评价方法的比较,最终确定采用模糊网络分析法(F-ANP)。 (2)采用专家调查问卷的形式,收集信息影响码头建设安全性的因素有很多,本文以专家调查问卷的形式对影响LNG码头建设安全的因素进行调查、对比、打分,进一步确定每个因素在F—ANP中所占比重,通过三角模糊数确定权重,最终构造超矩阵得出计算结果,找出影响比较关键的因素。 (3)建立评价模型从LNG船舶自身特点出发,通过专家调查问卷形式,对码头影响因素进行归类、整合,结合模糊网络分析法,建立安全评价模型,进而为LNG码头的安全建设提供一定参考。本文以江苏洋口港西太阳沙北码头区LNG码头建设的实例进行验证。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, natural gas, as a clean energy, gradually occupies the main part of the new energy structure in China, which makes the quantity of natural gas transported at sea and LNG ships increasing. However, LNG itself has the characteristics of high risk after combustion explosion, easy leakage and shipwreck, which determines the risk of LNG ships in the process of transportation and berthing. Therefore, the safety of LNG terminal construction also plays an important role. However, there are many factors that affect the safety of LNG terminal construction. Therefore, these factors are classified and analyzed to provide a more reliable basis for judging the safety of LNG terminal construction, and to ensure the safety of life of marine property. It is of great significance to prevent pollution. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: (1) the safety of LNG terminal construction is a complex system problem. To some extent, different methods are used to evaluate the same problem, and the conclusion may be quite different. Therefore, through the comparison of various evaluation methods, this paper finally determines that the use of fuzzy network analysis (F-ANP). (2) and the form of expert questionnaire to collect information has a lot of factors that affect the security of the construction of the wharf. In this paper, the factors affecting the safety of LNG terminal construction are investigated in the form of an expert questionnaire. By comparing and scoring, the proportion of each factor in F-ANP is further determined, and the weight is determined by triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the calculation results are obtained by constructing the supermatrix, and the key factors are found out. (3) the evaluation model is established based on the characteristics of LNG vessels, and the influencing factors of the wharf are classified by the form of expert questionnaire. Combined with fuzzy network analysis, a safety evaluation model is established, which provides a certain reference for LNG terminal safety construction. This paper verifies the construction of LNG wharf in Yangkou Port, Jiangsu Province.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U656.1

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