基于NestedLogit的小汽车通勤出行转移模型研究

发布时间：2018-08-07 08:36

【摘要】：随着城市空间规模的扩大,城市居民职住分离问题日益突出,就业地与居住地的分离使城市居民的平均通勤距离和通勤时间日益增长,通勤出行问题变得日益严峻。在各种出行目的中,以上下班为目的的通勤出行比例高达40%～60%,以通勤为主体的早晚高峰出行量过于集中,加剧了城市中交通系统的供需矛盾。因此,解决好通勤出行问题对于缓解城市交通拥堵具有非常重要的意义。本文以小汽车通勤出行者向公共交通转移意向调查为基础,通过对小汽车和公交车通勤出行特征以及通勤出行方式和出发时刻选择影响因素的分析,构建了通勤出发时刻和出行方式选择的Nested Logit模型,针对快速路设置公交专用道对小汽车向公共交通转移的影响进行了分析,为制定和实施缓解城市交通拥堵的政策提供了参考依据。本文具体做了如下的研究：首先,介绍了本文的研究背景和意义,对国内外研究现状进行了综述,在此基础上提出了本文的研究内容和技术路线；其次,对本文所用到的一些基本概念和基础理论进行了界定和阐述；本文选取通州地区作为为调研区域,利用RP+SP的调查方法获取所需的数据,并利用方差判别法、打分法、逻辑校验法对数据进行了筛选和修正。然后对小汽车和公交车通勤出行特征以及通勤出行者属性特征进行了分析；最后,构建了通勤出发时刻和出行方选择的Nested Logit模型,并运用模型计算了五类出发时刻小汽车通勤出行方式向公共交通转移率。本文得出的主要结论有：影响通勤者出行方式选择的因素主要有小汽车数量、年龄、家庭年收入、公交与小汽车出行时间差、小汽车上涨费用、公交票价、公交拥挤程度、换乘次数以及小汽车出行单位时间费用；影响通勤者出发时刻选择的因素主要有年龄、是否有接送上学的小孩、单位上班时间、家庭年收入、小汽车数量以及出行距离。而且出发时刻越早的人选择公交的概率越大；由于每次出行费用从总体上看可以视作固定水平,而随着小汽车出行单位时间费用的升高,意味着小汽车通勤出行的时间在缩短,因此通勤者选择公交出行的概率在降低。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of urban space, the separation of urban residents' occupation and residence becomes increasingly prominent. The separation of employment place and residence makes the average commuting distance and commuting time of urban residents increasing day by day, and the commuting travel problem becomes more and more serious. Among all kinds of travel purposes, the commuter travel ratio is as high as 40%, and the morning and evening peak travel volume with commuting as the main body is too concentrated, which intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand of the transportation system in the city. Therefore, it is very important to solve the problem of commuting travel for alleviating urban traffic congestion. Based on the investigation of the intention of car commuters to public transport, this paper analyzes the characteristics of commute travel of cars and buses, the commuting modes and the factors affecting the choice of departure time. In this paper, the Nested Logit model of commuting departure time and mode selection is constructed, and the influence of setting bus lanes on the transfer of cars to public transport is analyzed. It provides a reference for the formulation and implementation of policies to alleviate urban traffic congestion. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background and significance of this paper, summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and then puts forward the research content and technical route of this paper. Some basic concepts and theories used in this paper are defined and expounded, Tongzhou area is selected as the investigation area, the required data are obtained by using RP SP survey method, and the variance discriminant method is used to score the data. The logical calibration method is used to filter and modify the data. Then the characteristics of commute travel and the attribute of commuter are analyzed. Finally, the Nested Logit model of commute departure time and travel party selection is constructed. The model is used to calculate the transfer rate of five kinds of commute modes from cars to public transport. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the number of cars, the age, the annual income of the family, the travel time difference between the bus and the car, the rising cost of the car, the ticket price of the bus, the degree of congestion of the bus are the main factors influencing the commuter's travel mode choice. The main factors that affect commuters' choice of departure time are age, whether there are children to and from school, working hours, annual income of family, number of cars and travel distance. And the earlier they start, the more likely they are to choose public transport; because the cost of each trip can be regarded as a fixed level in general, and with the increase of the cost per unit time of the car trip, it means that the commuting time of the car is shortened. Therefore commuter choice bus travel probability is decreasing.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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