复杂系统脆性理论在道路交通系统中的应用

发布时间：2018-08-07 12:39

【摘要】：随着人们生活水平的提高,我国城市居民人均汽车占有率逐年上升,很多地区已经出现了严重的堵车、塞车等现象。同时,由于车辆的急剧增多,我国每年发生的交通事故也越来越多,给人们的安全、国家经济等造成了严重的危害。因此,对道路交通事故进行有效、及时地控制,是我国面临的一项重大问题,具有现实的研究意义。道路交通系统是典型的复杂系统,交通事故的发生会激发系统的脆性,进而导致交通系统的崩溃。随着道路交通系统规模的不断扩大,交通系统的脆性问题也随之变得复杂。一旦交通系统的脆性被激发,整个系统就面临着崩溃。因此分析脆性激发的原因、运行机制以及对脆性源的控制等问题,就成了亟待解决的大事。在本论文中,通过介绍复杂系统的发展情况说明了研究其脆性的重要意义。然后给出了复杂系统脆性的定义、特点以及图形描述,在深入研究集对分析和熵理论的基础上,给出了事故脆性风险熵的基本概念。其次,在集对分析理论的基础上,对交通系统进行了脆性源等级的判别。首先建立某一地区道路交通系统的脆性模型,模型建立的主要思想就是给出路口任一时刻车辆的流入、流出量,利用此时刻车辆的数量来反映该路段的拥挤程度,也即路口的崩溃程度。并给出了具体的例子,来说明脆性源等级判别的方法。对交通系统的各因素进行脆性等级判别后,主要是对交通事故因素进行了细致的研究。将复杂系统脆性理论应用于交通事故系统的事故熵分析,通过对引起道路交通事故的因素进行分析,以2006年的具体交通事故统计为例,找到了导致交通系统脆性发生的脆性因素。通过减小事故熵的方法,对脆性源进行了有效地控制,并找到了相应的控制路径。最后,在原有后果熵函数的基础上,通过引入层次分析法重新完善了权重的计算,使得后果熵函数的分析方法更加合理。并将其应用于道路交通事故系统,进行了数值仿真实验,对实验结果进行了分析。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's living standard, the per capita car occupation rate of urban residents in China has been increasing year by year. There have been serious traffic jams and traffic jams in many areas. At the same time, with the rapid increase of vehicles, more and more traffic accidents occur every year in our country, which has caused serious harm to people's safety and national economy. Therefore, effective and timely control of road traffic accidents is an important problem in China, which has practical significance. Road traffic system is a typical complex system. The occurrence of traffic accident will stimulate the brittleness of the system and lead to the collapse of the traffic system. With the increasing scale of road traffic system, the brittleness of traffic system becomes more and more complicated. Once the brittleness of the traffic system is activated, the whole system faces collapse. Therefore, it is urgent to analyze the cause of brittleness excitation, operation mechanism and control of brittleness source. In this paper, the importance of studying the brittleness of complex systems is explained by introducing the development of complex systems. Then, the definition, characteristics and graphic description of brittleness of complex systems are given. The basic concept of risk entropy of accident brittleness is given on the basis of studying set pair analysis and entropy theory. Secondly, based on the theory of set pair analysis, the class of brittle source of traffic system is determined. First of all, the brittle model of road traffic system in a certain area is established. The main idea of the model is to give the inflow and outflow of vehicles at any time of the intersection, and to use the number of vehicles at this time to reflect the congestion of the road. That is, the degree of collapse at the intersection. A concrete example is given to illustrate the method of judging the class of brittle source. After judging the factors of traffic system, the factors of traffic accidents are studied in detail. The theory of complex system brittleness is applied to the accident entropy analysis of traffic accident system. Through the analysis of the factors causing road traffic accident, the statistics of specific traffic accidents in 2006 are taken as an example. The brittleness factors leading to the brittleness of traffic system are found. By reducing the accident entropy, the brittleness source is effectively controlled, and the corresponding control path is found. Finally, on the basis of the original consequence entropy function, the analytic hierarchy process is introduced to improve the calculation of the weight, which makes the analysis method of the consequence entropy function more reasonable. It is applied to the road traffic accident system, and the numerical simulation experiment is carried out, and the experimental results are analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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