信息影响下区分潜在类别的公交线路选择模型

发布时间：2018-08-16 14:58

【摘要】：为分析实时公交运行信息和用户自身偏好对公交用户路径选择行为的影响,引入三角分布描述公交信息的不确定性,并使用前景函数替代效用函数描述出行者决策的不完全理性,建立基于前景函数的选择概率模型。为进一步区分不同出行者偏好差异,在前景模型的基础上结合潜在类别模型,构建区分出行者潜在类别的前景概率模型。利用2013年北京市的实际调查数据进行参数估计并检验。结果表明:a)出行者的选择行为受自身的偏好影响;b)基于景函数的选择模型比传统的效用函数模型拟合度更好、更贴合实际选择行为;c)区分潜在类别模型的统计学特征更优秀;d)多数公交用户对等车时间更敏感。通过各种措施缩短等车时间或直觉等车时间比提高公交运行速度更能吸引乘客。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the influence of real-time bus operation information and users' preferences on the route choice behavior of public transport users, triangular distribution is introduced to describe the uncertainty of bus information. Using the foreground function to replace the utility function to describe the incomplete rationality of the traveler's decision, the selection probability model based on the foreground function is established. In order to further distinguish the preferences of different travelers, based on the foreground model combined with the potential category model, a foreground probability model is constructed to distinguish the potential categories of travelers. The actual survey data of Beijing in 2013 were used to estimate and test the parameters. The results show that the choice behavior of the traveler is influenced by his preference. The selection model based on the scene function is better than the traditional utility function model. It is more suitable for the actual choice behavior (c) distinguishing the statistical characteristics of the potential class model is more excellent (d) most bus users are more sensitive to the time of peer-to-peer bus. Shortening the waiting time or intuitively waiting time is more attractive to passengers than increasing bus speed.
【作者单位】：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院;西南交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50908196) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(SWJTU09ZT18) 四川省学术和技术带头人培养资金资助项目(川人办发[2008]24号)
【分类号】：TP301.6;U491

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