沈阳市中心城区停车位需求预测与供应规模研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 16:50

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国社会经济的快速发展,机动化进程的不断加快,机动车保有量急剧增加。停车难已经成为我国大、中城市普遍存在的问题。作为城市的中心城区,由于车流人流集中,停车位需求量大,导致停车难的问题尤为突出。而在今后很长一段时期内,随着我国人民物质生活水平的逐渐提高,将有越来越多的家庭拥有私家车,这将带来中心城区停车位需求与供给矛盾的进一步加剧。停车难已经成为各大城市政府部门亟待解决的问题。因此,运用科学的方法准确预测停车位需求的发展趋势,据此提出相应的停车位供应规模,是解决停车难问题的关键。本文以沈阳市中心城区停车位需求与供应规模为研究对象,分别从停车位需求预测、停车位供应规模、停车布局规划以及停车管理政策等方面进行了国内外研究现状分析,并结合中心城区的概念,对沈阳市中心城区的范围进行了界定。分别从停车泊位、停车特性和停车管理等方面对沈阳市中心城区的停车现状进行了分析,并指出了沈阳市中心城区停车存在的问题。在对停车位需求影响因素进行分析的基础上,结合沈阳市中心城区停车发展现状,深入分析了停车位需求预测方法的适用性,确定了适合于沈阳市中心城区停车位需求的预测模型,并分别从近期和中长期角度对沈阳市中心城区的停车位需求进行了预测。结合沈阳市中心城区的停车位供应现状,分别制定了配建停车场、路内停车场和路外公共停车场的停车位供应原则,通过对停车设施供应影响因素的分析,论证了效益评价理论应用于停车场合理供应规模确定的可行性。从政府部门管理者、停车场经营者和使用者的角度构建了效益评价指标,应用效益综合评价模型确定沈阳市中心城区配建停车场、路外停车场、路内停车场停车位的供应比例,进而确定了不同类别停车场的停车位供应量。针对沈阳市中心城区停车存在的问题,结合沈阳市中心城区停车管理发展需求,分别从中心城区停车政策与管理、规划建设、技术三方面提出了适用于沈阳市中心城区停车发展的对策建议。本文的创新点包括：分别运用两种模型对沈阳市中心城区停车位需求量进行了预测,并结合沈阳市经济社会发展趋势对预测结果进行了修正,提高了预测结果的准确性；在此基础上应用停车设施效益综合评价模型对沈阳市中心城区配建、路外、路内停车场的停车泊位供应规模进行了合理的配比,实现了中心城区停车位需求与供应的协调统一；结合沈阳市中心城区停车发展需求,针对中心城区停车管理存在的问题,提出了适用于沈阳市中心城区停车发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's social economy and the acceleration of the motorization process, the number of motor vehicles has increased dramatically. Parking difficulty has become a common problem in large and medium-sized cities in China. In a long period of time, with the gradual improvement of people's living standards, more and more families will own private cars, which will lead to the further intensification of the contradiction between the demand and supply of parking space in the central urban area. According to the development trend of parking space demand, the corresponding parking space supply scale is the key to solve the parking problem. This paper takes the parking space demand and supply scale of Shenyang downtown as the research object, and carries out the parking space demand forecast, parking space supply scale, parking layout planning and parking management policy. Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign research status and the concept of central city zone, the scope of Shenyang central city zone is defined. The parking status of Shenyang central city zone is analyzed from the aspects of parking space, parking characteristics and parking management, and the existing problems of parking in Shenyang central city zone are pointed out. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors and combined with the parking development status of Shenyang central city, the applicability of parking space demand forecasting method is analyzed in depth, and the prediction model suitable for the parking space demand of Shenyang central city is determined, and the parking space demand of Shenyang central city is forecasted from the perspective of short-term and medium-term and long-term respectively. According to the present situation of parking space supply in Shenyang downtown area, the principles of parking space supply for parking lot allocation, on-road parking and off-road public parking are formulated respectively. The feasibility of applying the benefit evaluation theory to the determination of reasonable parking space supply scale is demonstrated by analyzing the influencing factors of parking facilities supply. From the point of view of managers, parking operators and users, this paper constructs the benefit evaluation index, and applies the benefit comprehensive evaluation model to determine the supply proportion of parking spaces in the central urban districts of Shenyang, such as allocated parking spaces, off-road parking spaces and on-road parking spaces, and then determines the parking space supply of different types of parking spaces. Based on the existing problems and the parking management development needs of Shenyang downtown area, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the parking development of Shenyang downtown area from three aspects of parking policy and management, planning and construction, and technology. The forecast is made, and the forecast result is revised according to the development trend of Shenyang's economy and society, which improves the accuracy of the forecast result; on this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of parking facilities benefit is applied to the allocation of parking space in Shenyang's central city, and the supply scale of parking space in parking lots outside and inside the road is reasonably proportioned to achieve the goal. The demand and supply of parking spaces in the downtown area are coordinated and unified. Combining with the demand of parking development in the downtown area of Shenyang, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for parking development in the downtown area of Shenyang.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.7

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