区域旅游交通量预测研究
发布时间：2018-09-04 06:26
【摘要】：在国民经济持续稳定的发展中,国内旅游业随着人民生活水平的提高进入高速发展的时期。但是由于区域经济发展的不均衡性,国内各地区的旅游业发展也有快有慢。在西部地区,旅游业的发展就大大滞后于全国平均水平。其中最重要的原因之一就是旅游交通发展的滞后,包括两方面：旅游交通基础设施不足和旅游交通管理水平低下。为合理规划旅游交通基础设施建设和提高旅游交通管理水平,及时、准确地预测区域旅游交通量就显得无比重要。 本文首先对旅游交通的特性进行分析,以便后面研究中模型的构建。由于区域旅游交通和传统城市交通的交通特性存在很大的差别,需要对区域旅游交通小区划分进行重新研究。本文提出了旅游交通小区划分中的原则、步骤和模糊聚类分析的方法,并使用Matlab编程进行实例的计算。在旅游交通生成预测中,采用旅游人次作为单位。由于传统旅游学中旅游人次和旅游交通中人次的区别,需要建立模型对两者进行转换。本文通过双约束重力模型对旅游交通分布进行预测,提出新的约束条件以符合旅游交通的特点。在交通方式划分中,通过相关模型将旅游人次分布量转化为旅游车辆分布量。由于旅游交通的时空不均衡性,最后根据交通分配的结果,使用季节分配模型对旅游交通线路上特定时期的旅游交通量进行预测,以便于实际中的交通管理和调控。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and stable development of national economy, domestic tourism has entered a period of rapid development along with the improvement of people's living standard. However, due to the uneven development of regional economy, tourism development in various regions of China is also fast and slow. In the western region, tourism development lags behind the national average. One of the most important reasons is the lag of the development of tourism traffic, including two aspects: the lack of tourism transport infrastructure and the low level of tourism traffic management. In order to plan tourism traffic infrastructure construction and improve the level of tourism traffic management, it is very important to predict the regional traffic volume in time and accurately. In this paper, the characteristics of tourism traffic are analyzed in order to construct the model. Because of the great difference between the regional tourism traffic and the traditional urban traffic, it is necessary to re-study the division of the regional tourism traffic district. In this paper, the principles, steps and fuzzy clustering analysis method in the division of tourist traffic district are put forward, and the examples are calculated by using Matlab programming. In the forecast of tourism traffic generation, the tourist person-time is used as the unit. Because of the difference between the number of tourists in traditional tourism science and the number of people in tourism traffic, it is necessary to establish a model to convert the two. In this paper, the distribution of tourism traffic is predicted by double constrained gravity model, and a new constraint condition is proposed to meet the characteristics of tourism traffic. In the division of traffic modes, the distribution of tourist passengers is transformed into the distribution of tourist vehicles through the relevant model. Because of the spatial and temporal imbalance of tourism traffic, the seasonal distribution model is used to predict the traffic volume of tourism traffic in a specific period according to the result of traffic allocation, so as to facilitate the traffic management and regulation in practice.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12
[Abstract]:With the sustained and stable development of national economy, domestic tourism has entered a period of rapid development along with the improvement of people's living standard. However, due to the uneven development of regional economy, tourism development in various regions of China is also fast and slow. In the western region, tourism development lags behind the national average. One of the most important reasons is the lag of the development of tourism traffic, including two aspects: the lack of tourism transport infrastructure and the low level of tourism traffic management. In order to plan tourism traffic infrastructure construction and improve the level of tourism traffic management, it is very important to predict the regional traffic volume in time and accurately. In this paper, the characteristics of tourism traffic are analyzed in order to construct the model. Because of the great difference between the regional tourism traffic and the traditional urban traffic, it is necessary to re-study the division of the regional tourism traffic district. In this paper, the principles, steps and fuzzy clustering analysis method in the division of tourist traffic district are put forward, and the examples are calculated by using Matlab programming. In the forecast of tourism traffic generation, the tourist person-time is used as the unit. Because of the difference between the number of tourists in traditional tourism science and the number of people in tourism traffic, it is necessary to establish a model to convert the two. In this paper, the distribution of tourism traffic is predicted by double constrained gravity model, and a new constraint condition is proposed to meet the characteristics of tourism traffic. In the division of traffic modes, the distribution of tourist passengers is transformed into the distribution of tourist vehicles through the relevant model. Because of the spatial and temporal imbalance of tourism traffic, the seasonal distribution model is used to predict the traffic volume of tourism traffic in a specific period according to the result of traffic allocation, so as to facilitate the traffic management and regulation in practice.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12
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