船舶舱室火灾风险分析方法研究
发布时间：2018-09-04 11:07
【摘要】：以船舶火灾为背景,建立了适用于船舶舱室火灾风险分析的方法。首先确定了舱室起火频率模型以及主要消防措施的可靠性,然后采用贝叶斯网络建立了火灾场景发生概率模型。其次对船舶舱室火灾的不确定性参数进行了分析,并将蒙特卡洛模拟与双区火灾模型结合对场景发生危险的概率进行计算。最后,对实船典型结构舱室进行了算例。结果表明:舱室人员发生火灾危险的概率(2.011×10-3)大于设备发生火灾危险的概率(7.155×10-4);当舱室起火时,喷淋对舱室人员安全几乎没有影响,无论有无喷淋,烟气沉降到危险临界高度的时间都很短,均值约为9 s;喷淋对舱室设备有很好的保护作用,无喷淋的舱室最高温度均值为292℃,有喷淋的舱室最高温度均值为141℃。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of ship fire, a method for fire risk analysis of ship compartment is established. First, the fire frequency model and the reliability of the main fire prevention measures are determined, and then the probability model of fire scene is established by using Bayesian network. Secondly, the uncertain parameters of ship compartment fire are analyzed, and the probability of scene hazard is calculated by combining Monte Carlo simulation with two-zone fire model. Finally, an example is given for the typical structural compartment of a ship. The results show that the probability of fire hazard to cabin personnel (2.011 脳 10 ~ (-3) is higher than that of equipment (7.155 脳 10 ~ (-4), and that spraying has little effect on the safety of cabin personnel when the compartment is on fire, regardless of whether it is sprayed or not. The time of smoke deposition to the critical height of danger is very short, the average value is about 9 s, the spraying has a good protective effect on the cabin equipment, the average maximum temperature of the room without spraying is 292 鈩，
本文编号：2221898
[Abstract]:Based on the background of ship fire, a method for fire risk analysis of ship compartment is established. First, the fire frequency model and the reliability of the main fire prevention measures are determined, and then the probability model of fire scene is established by using Bayesian network. Secondly, the uncertain parameters of ship compartment fire are analyzed, and the probability of scene hazard is calculated by combining Monte Carlo simulation with two-zone fire model. Finally, an example is given for the typical structural compartment of a ship. The results show that the probability of fire hazard to cabin personnel (2.011 脳 10 ~ (-3) is higher than that of equipment (7.155 脳 10 ~ (-4), and that spraying has little effect on the safety of cabin personnel when the compartment is on fire, regardless of whether it is sprayed or not. The time of smoke deposition to the critical height of danger is very short, the average value is about 9 s, the spraying has a good protective effect on the cabin equipment, the average maximum temperature of the room without spraying is 292 鈩，
本文编号：2221898
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