改扩建公路交通量预测影响因素及其敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-12-23 18:27

【摘要】：随着我国经济和交通运输业的高速发展,各地区交通量迅速增长,对于道路建设的需求日趋强烈。但由于新建公路投资大、耗时长、占用土地资源多等原因,较多地区更倾向于对原有公路进行改扩建。交通量预测结果是决定公路技术等级、建设规模以及进行国民经济评价的基本依据。在公路项目后评价报告的研究中发现,很多高速公路以及一、二级改扩建公路在工程可行性研究阶段所预测的交通量与实际运营交通量存在较大误差。本文旨在结合黑龙江省省道建兴至碾子山二级公路明林段改扩建工程交通量实际预测,提取影响交通量预测准确度的敏感性因素,分析其对交通量预测的影响程度并提出相应建议及对策。本文首先介绍了改扩建公路交通量预测应用最为广泛的两个方法：“四阶段”法和基于运输通道法,对两种预测方法的理论和预测模型进行研究；并对两种方法的优缺点及适用范围作出比较分析。其次,结合黑龙江省省道建兴至碾子山二级公路明林段,基于“四阶段”法,利用TransCAD软件对改扩建公路进行交通量预测。重点包括未来社会经济发展趋势预测、交通小区的划分及路网的构建、基年OD矩阵反推、未来出行产生、吸引总量预测、未来出行分布预测和交通量分配。再次,基于“四阶段”法,对四个阶段中影响交通量预测的因素逐一进行分析。并运用模糊综合评价法提取出影响交通量预测的敏感性因素。最后,以黑龙江省省道建兴至碾子山二级公路明林段改扩建工程交通量预测数据为基础,将远景年拟改扩建项目交通分配量作为评价指标,基于“四阶段”法和TransCAD软件相关模型,利用单因素敏感性分析法,对敏感性因素进行敏感性分析,研究其对评价指标的影响程度。并结合研究分析结果及实际预测中的问题,提出提高交通量预测结果准确性的相关建议及对策,希望为今后的交通量预测工作提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and transportation in China, the traffic volume in various regions is increasing rapidly, and the demand for road construction is becoming more and more intense. However, due to the large investment of new highway, the time consuming and the occupation of land resources, more regions tend to rebuild and expand the existing highway. The result of traffic volume prediction is the basic basis for determining highway technical grade, construction scale and national economic evaluation. In the study of the post-evaluation report of highway project, it is found that there is a big error between the traffic volume predicted in the stage of feasibility study of engineering and the actual traffic volume of many freeways and the first and second grade reconstruction and extension highway. The purpose of this paper is to extract the sensitive factors that affect the accuracy of traffic volume prediction based on the actual forecast of traffic volume in the reconstruction and expansion project of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province. The influence degree of traffic volume prediction is analyzed, and the corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forward. This paper first introduces two most widely used methods of highway traffic volume prediction: "four-stage" method and "transportation passage method", and studies the theory and prediction model of the two forecasting methods. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and their scope of application are compared and analyzed. Secondly, combining the Minglin section of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province, based on the "four stages" method, the traffic volume of the reconstructed and expanded highway is forecasted by using TransCAD software. It mainly includes the forecast of the future social and economic development trend, the division of the traffic district and the construction of the road network, the base year OD matrix backstepping, the future trip generation, the total attraction forecast, the future travel distribution forecast and the traffic volume distribution. Thirdly, based on the four-stage method, the factors affecting traffic volume prediction are analyzed one by one. The sensitivity factors of traffic volume prediction are extracted by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, based on the forecast data of traffic volume of the reconstruction and extension project of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province, the traffic allocation of the project is regarded as the evaluation index. Based on the "four-stage" method and the TransCAD software model, the sensitivity analysis of the sensitivity factors was carried out by using the single factor sensitivity analysis method, and the degree of its influence on the evaluation index was studied. Combined with the research and analysis results and the problems in the actual forecast, the paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures to improve the accuracy of the traffic volume prediction results, hoping to provide a reference for the future traffic volume prediction work.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.14

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