基于分层负二项模型的城郊公路安全影响因素研究
发布时间：2019-01-01 09:08
【摘要】：为了加深对城郊公路交通事故发生与相关因素之间关系的认识,针对上海市8条城郊公路的161个路段,利用统计模型分析公路宏观特征、路段几何设计、接入口特征、交通特征、区位特点和交通安全的关系。结果表明:由于选自同一公路的不同路段遵循相同的设计标准,具有相似交通特点而存在空间相关现象,违背了传统模型样本相互独立的假设,建立分层负二项模型进行分析可以获得准确结果;位于近郊的路段相对于远郊更易发生交通事故;信控交叉口密度对简易事故、一般事故和事故总数均有显著正相关影响,间距大且均衡对交通安全是最有利的;接入口密度对3类事故有显著正相关影响;曲线路段容易导致一般事故的发生。
[Abstract]:In order to deepen the understanding of the relationship between traffic accidents and related factors in suburban highway, the statistical model is used to analyze the macroscopic characteristics, geometric design and entrance characteristics of the highway, aiming at 161 sections of 8 suburban highways in Shanghai. The relationship between traffic characteristics, location characteristics and traffic safety. The results show that because different sections selected from the same highway follow the same design standards and have similar traffic characteristics, there exists a spatial correlation phenomenon, which violates the assumption that the traditional model samples are independent of each other. Accurate results can be obtained by establishing a stratified negative binomial model. The density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents, and the distance between them is the most favorable to traffic safety. The traffic accidents in the near suburbs are more likely to occur than those in the outer suburbs, and the density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents. The density of entrance has a significant positive correlation with the three types of accidents, and the curve section can easily lead to the occurrence of general accidents.
【作者单位】： 同济大学交通运输工程学院;湖南大学交通运输工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51008230) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0387) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(160021976)
【分类号】：U491
[Abstract]:In order to deepen the understanding of the relationship between traffic accidents and related factors in suburban highway, the statistical model is used to analyze the macroscopic characteristics, geometric design and entrance characteristics of the highway, aiming at 161 sections of 8 suburban highways in Shanghai. The relationship between traffic characteristics, location characteristics and traffic safety. The results show that because different sections selected from the same highway follow the same design standards and have similar traffic characteristics, there exists a spatial correlation phenomenon, which violates the assumption that the traditional model samples are independent of each other. Accurate results can be obtained by establishing a stratified negative binomial model. The density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents, and the distance between them is the most favorable to traffic safety. The traffic accidents in the near suburbs are more likely to occur than those in the outer suburbs, and the density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents. The density of entrance has a significant positive correlation with the three types of accidents, and the curve section can easily lead to the occurrence of general accidents.
【作者单位】： 同济大学交通运输工程学院;湖南大学交通运输工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51008230) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0387) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(160021976)
【分类号】：U491
【参考文献】
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1 张铁军;唐，
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