基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择

发布时间：2019-04-19 20:27

【摘要】：对于实际出行中居民心理因素对出行方式选择的影响问题,构建基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择模型,提出了一种更加符合人类思维习惯的出行方式选择方法。综合考虑居民对行程时间及出行费用两种指标的心理参照点,得出相对最能使居民满意的出行方式选择结果;通过不同参照点下出行方式的综合前景值的变化分析了参照点对出行方式的选择的影响;最后通过实例说明了此方法在出行方式选择中的应用。实验结果表明:行程时间参照点要求较低的小范围内居民倾向于公交出行,尽管出租车与私家车出行方式综合前景值趋势变化一致,但更大范围内的居民倾向于私家车出行,这与实际相符。所提方法为预测居民出行方式提供了一种新的途径。
[Abstract]:With regard to the influence of residents' psychological factors on the choice of travel mode in real travel, a travel mode selection model based on prospect theory is constructed, and a travel mode selection method which is more in line with human thinking habits is put forward. Considering the psychological reference point of residents' travel time and travel cost, the results of the choice of travel mode which can make the residents satisfied are obtained. The influence of reference point on the choice of trip mode is analyzed through the change of comprehensive prospect value of trip mode under different reference points, and finally the application of this method in trip mode selection is illustrated by an example. The experimental results show that the residents with low travel time reference point tend to travel by public transport. Although the trend of the comprehensive prospect value of taxi and private car travel mode is consistent, the residents in a larger range tend to travel by private car, but the residents in a larger range tend to travel by private car, although the trend of comprehensive prospect of taxi and private car travel is consistent. This is in line with reality. The proposed method provides a new way to predict the travel mode of residents.
【作者单位】：兰州交通大学交通运输学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61364026) 教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(12YJC630200) 兰州交通大学青年科学基金资助项目(2011001)
【分类号】：U491.12

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