高速公路工程施工方进度风险分析研究

发布时间：2019-04-21 22:20

【摘要】：公路工程建设同其他建设工程项目一样，具有周期长、投资大、工程复杂、参与人员多等一系列特点，这也就意味着在公路工程的建设过程中，会出现许多不确定性的风险因素，这些风险因素可能会影响到工程的进度、质量、安全、成本等方面。尤其是在进度方面，公路工程项目能否在规定的时间内竣工使用，将会直接影响到其社会效益和经济效益是否能够按期发挥。关于公路工程进度方面的研究前人已在很多方面进行了深入的分析，但是绝大部分都是针对整个建设工程项目，分析其影响因素。本文在前人研究和施工现有状况的基础上，从施工方的角度出发，介绍了施工进度风险管理的相关理论，施工方进度风险分析综合评价体系的构建，施工方进度风险分析理论模型的建立，并选用工程实例对以上内容进行了实例的应用。具体内容如下：首先，介绍施工进度风险管理的相关内容，，并对施工进度风险管理中的风险因素的识别过程作了详细的介绍：采用三轮筛选法，以调查问卷的形式对施工进度的风险因素进行收集和整理，并用解释结构模型（ISM）对通过三轮筛选法得到的最终的施工进度风险因素进行层次模型的构建。根据由解释结构模型得到的递阶结构模型，可以得到施工方进度风险分析的综合评价指标体系。其次，在得到了施工方进度风险分析的评价指标体系以后，采用改进后的层次分析法（AHP）对各级评价指标进行权重的确定，并采用熵值法对各指标的权重进行修正，就得到了各级评价指标最终的权重值，即各指标对施工方进度的影响强弱。对此进行排序，就可以得到影响施工方进度的主要因素，由此决策者可以采取有针对性的措施，避免盲目指挥，提高工作效率。然后，采用灰色评价法确定施工方进度的风险等级，以使决策者做到心中有数。最后，选取湖北省监利至江陵高速公路JJTJ—4合同段，对以上建立的施工方进度风险分析理论模型进行实例的验证。最后得出，该评价理论模型对类似的工程实例的分析有一定的理论指导意义。
[Abstract]:Highway engineering construction, like other construction projects, has a series of characteristics, such as long cycle, large investment, complex engineering and more participants, which means that in the construction process of highway engineering, There will be many uncertain risk factors, which may affect the progress, quality, safety, cost and so on. Especially in the aspect of progress, whether the highway project can be completed and used within the specified time will directly affect its social and economic benefits. Previous studies on the progress of highway engineering have carried out in-depth analysis in many aspects, but most of them are aimed at the whole construction project and analyze its influencing factors. On the basis of previous research and current construction situation, this paper introduces the related theory of construction schedule risk management and the construction of comprehensive evaluation system of construction schedule risk analysis from the perspective of construction party. The theoretical model of construction party schedule risk analysis is established, and a project example is selected to apply the above examples. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, the related content of construction schedule risk management is introduced, and the identification process of risk factors in construction schedule risk management is introduced in detail: using the three-round screening method, The risk factors of construction schedule are collected and sorted in the form of questionnaire, and the hierarchical model of the final risk factors of construction schedule obtained by three-round screening method is constructed by using the interpretive structural model (ISM). According to the hierarchical structural model derived from the interpretive structural model, a comprehensive evaluation index system for construction party schedule risk analysis can be obtained. Secondly, after obtaining the evaluation index system of construction party schedule risk analysis, the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes at all levels, and the entropy method is used to modify the weights of each index. The final weight value of the evaluation indexes at all levels is obtained, that is, the influence of each index on the construction schedule is strong and weak. In order to get the main factors that affect the progress of the construction worker, the decision-maker can take measures to avoid blind command and improve the work efficiency. Then, the grey evaluation method is used to determine the risk level of construction schedule, so as to make the decision-makers know exactly what they want. Finally, the JJTJ-4 contract section of Jianli-Jiangling Expressway in Hubei Province is selected to verify the theoretical model of construction schedule risk analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the evaluation theory model has some theoretical guiding significance to the analysis of similar engineering cases.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U415.1

【参考文献】