气象条件与南京地区道路交通事故量的分析

发布时间：2019-05-20 06:57

【摘要】：用南京地区2012年逐日交通事故数据和实测气象资料,在考虑自相关性的前提下,通过多因子时间序列分析,构建南京地区2012年道路日交通事故量的AR气象影响模型,对工作日和非工作日分别分析发现:不利气象条件与日交通事故量,工作日比非工作日相关显著,降水、低温、低能见度等都与交通事故显著相关,中雨以下日降水量与日交通事故量呈正相关,日平均气温在2~12℃、日最低能见度在200~500 m范围内,都与日交通事故量呈显著负相关;但大的降水、极端气温、低能见度与发生交通事故的相关性反而减小。又根据不同气象要素在日交通事故量中的作用大小,构建气象影响逐步线性回归模型。最后,比较两种模型的优劣,拟合优度分析显示,工作日期间AR模型的拟合效果比逐步回归模型更好。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily traffic accident data and measured meteorological data in Nanjing in 2012, and considering the autocorrelation, the AR meteorological influence model of daily road traffic accidents in Nanjing in 2012 is constructed by multi-factor time series analysis. The analysis of working days and non-working days shows that the unfavorable meteorological conditions are significantly correlated with the daily traffic accidents, and the correlation between working days is more significant than that of non-working days. Precipitation, low temperature and low visibility are all significantly correlated with traffic accidents. The daily precipitation below moderate rain was positively correlated with the daily traffic accident volume. The daily average temperature was 2 掳12 鈩，

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