青海省公路桥涵设计流量公式的回归分析研究
发布时间：2019-06-26 08:31
【摘要】：青海全省境内目前仅设置新旧水文站43个,且分布不均,具有较长统计资料的水文站数量更少,属于水文资料稀缺地区,这种状况制约了省内公路桥涵水文计算的发展水平。自1979年至2012年期间,省内公路部门一直使用原交通部规划设计院1979年科研成果,全省被分为6个水文分区,但没有相应的区划范围图。而用于设计流量公式回归分析的原始数据多为1979年观测统计数据,这些数据年代久远,未考虑近年来的水情变化。在1991年,青海省公路科研勘测设计院使用“适线法”对流量公式进行了提高修正,但所使用的基础数据仍为1979年数据,水文计算的安全性虽有所提高,但基础数据年久而缺乏可信性,必将对计算结果、计算精度产生不利影响。2008年12月,由青海交通职业技术学院承担的厅级课题《青海省公路桥涵水文分区的修正及应用研究》(合同编号:2008-09)正式立项。经过3年多的研究,采用适合当地实际的、具有一定先进性的分区方法,依据最新的水文统计资料,将全省原有的6个分区,重新划分为7个产流区和1个季节性产流区,得到了具体明确的分区图和最新的设计流量计算公式,对本省公路桥涵建设起到了较好的指导作用。本次研究依托《青海省公路桥涵水文分区的修正及应用研究》科研课题,系统地介绍了青海省地理及水文概况、青海省公路桥涵水文分区概况和设计流量公式的确定,重点是流量公式的回归分析和误差分析。研究表明:以实测水文站数据回归后得到的流量公式,其计算精度高于原分区精度,表明现分区一致性优于原分区。本次研究的主要内容及成果有:(1)通过水文分区论证,将青海省原有的6个公路桥涵水文分区,细划为7个产流区和1个非产流区,首次绘制了青海省公路桥涵水文分区图及对应的水系图。(2)利用matlab软件,对修正后的公路桥涵水文分区内水文数据进行回归分析,确定了流量计算公式中的参数,修正了流量计算公式,可推算任意频率的设计流量,填补了省内空白。本次研究也存在一些不足之处。如祁连山区目前无任何水文站,导致无法对其进行分区细化;区域面积较大的柴达木区、玉树区水文站数量偏少且水情复杂,观测资料偏少,影响了分区细划;省内海西州部分地区频频发生水毁,本次所得的“柴达木区”经验公式,对“水毁”这一特殊水文现象仍不适用。
[Abstract]:At present, only 43 new and old hydrologic stations are set up in Qinghai Province, and the distribution is uneven, and the number of hydrologic stations with long statistical data is even smaller, which belongs to the area where hydrological data are scarce, which restricts the development level of hydrological calculation of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province. From 1979 to 2012, the highway departments in the province have been using the scientific research results of the original Planning and Design Institute of the Ministry of Communications in 1979. The province has been divided into six hydrological regions, but there is no corresponding zoning scope map. However, most of the original data used in regression analysis of design flow formula are 1979 observation statistics, which are old and do not take into account the changes of water regime in recent years. In 1991, Qinghai Provincial Highway Research and Survey and Design Institute used the "fitting method" to improve the flow formula, but the basic data used are still 1979 data. Although the safety of hydrological calculation has been improved, the basic data are long and lack of credibility, which will have a negative impact on the calculation results and calculation accuracy. December 2008, The department-level project "revision and Application Research of Qinghai Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrology Division" (contract No.: 2008 / 09), which is undertaken by Qinghai Institute of Communications Vocational and Technical College, has been formally established. After more than three years of research, using the zoning method which is suitable for the local reality and advanced to a certain extent, according to the latest hydrological statistical data, the original six divisions of the province are redivided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 seasonal runoff producing area, and the specific zoning map and the latest design flow calculation formula are obtained, which play a good guiding role in the construction of highway bridges and culverts in this province. Based on the scientific research topic of "revision and Application Research of Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrological Division in Qinghai Province", this paper systematically introduces the geography and hydrological situation of Qinghai Province, the general situation of Qinghai highway bridge and culvert hydrological zoning and the determination of design flow formula, with emphasis on the regression analysis and error analysis of the flow formula. The results show that the calculation accuracy of the flow formula obtained from the regression of the measured hydrologic station data is higher than that of the original partition, which shows that the consistency of the current partition is better than that of the original partition. The main contents and achievements of this study are as follows: (1) through the demonstration of hydrological zoning, the original six highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are divided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 non-runoff producing area, and the hydrological zoning maps and corresponding water system maps of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are drawn for the first time. (2) by using matlab software, the hydrological data in the modified highway bridges and culverts are analyzed by regression analysis. The parameters in the flow calculation formula are determined, the flow calculation formula is modified, the design flow at any frequency can be calculated, and the blank in the province can be filled. There are also some shortcomings in this study. For example, there are no hydrologic stations in Qilian Mountains at present, which makes it impossible to divide and refine them. In the Chaidamu area with a large area, the number of hydrologic stations in Yushu District is small and the observation data are too small, which affects the zoning. The empirical formula of "Chaidamu area" is still not applicable to the special hydrological phenomenon of "water destruction" in some areas of Haixi Province.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U442.5
本文编号：2506060
[Abstract]:At present, only 43 new and old hydrologic stations are set up in Qinghai Province, and the distribution is uneven, and the number of hydrologic stations with long statistical data is even smaller, which belongs to the area where hydrological data are scarce, which restricts the development level of hydrological calculation of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province. From 1979 to 2012, the highway departments in the province have been using the scientific research results of the original Planning and Design Institute of the Ministry of Communications in 1979. The province has been divided into six hydrological regions, but there is no corresponding zoning scope map. However, most of the original data used in regression analysis of design flow formula are 1979 observation statistics, which are old and do not take into account the changes of water regime in recent years. In 1991, Qinghai Provincial Highway Research and Survey and Design Institute used the "fitting method" to improve the flow formula, but the basic data used are still 1979 data. Although the safety of hydrological calculation has been improved, the basic data are long and lack of credibility, which will have a negative impact on the calculation results and calculation accuracy. December 2008, The department-level project "revision and Application Research of Qinghai Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrology Division" (contract No.: 2008 / 09), which is undertaken by Qinghai Institute of Communications Vocational and Technical College, has been formally established. After more than three years of research, using the zoning method which is suitable for the local reality and advanced to a certain extent, according to the latest hydrological statistical data, the original six divisions of the province are redivided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 seasonal runoff producing area, and the specific zoning map and the latest design flow calculation formula are obtained, which play a good guiding role in the construction of highway bridges and culverts in this province. Based on the scientific research topic of "revision and Application Research of Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrological Division in Qinghai Province", this paper systematically introduces the geography and hydrological situation of Qinghai Province, the general situation of Qinghai highway bridge and culvert hydrological zoning and the determination of design flow formula, with emphasis on the regression analysis and error analysis of the flow formula. The results show that the calculation accuracy of the flow formula obtained from the regression of the measured hydrologic station data is higher than that of the original partition, which shows that the consistency of the current partition is better than that of the original partition. The main contents and achievements of this study are as follows: (1) through the demonstration of hydrological zoning, the original six highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are divided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 non-runoff producing area, and the hydrological zoning maps and corresponding water system maps of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are drawn for the first time. (2) by using matlab software, the hydrological data in the modified highway bridges and culverts are analyzed by regression analysis. The parameters in the flow calculation formula are determined, the flow calculation formula is modified, the design flow at any frequency can be calculated, and the blank in the province can be filled. There are also some shortcomings in this study. For example, there are no hydrologic stations in Qilian Mountains at present, which makes it impossible to divide and refine them. In the Chaidamu area with a large area, the number of hydrologic stations in Yushu District is small and the observation data are too small, which affects the zoning. The empirical formula of "Chaidamu area" is still not applicable to the special hydrological phenomenon of "water destruction" in some areas of Haixi Province.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U442.5
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