养护干预下的沥青路面平整度预测

发布时间：2019-06-27 07:53

【摘要】：平整度作为使用性能系统中的综合性指标,不仅可以评估路面的行驶质量,也可以为养护决策提供依据。本文依托交通运输部建设科技项目《沥青路面长期使用性能研究(LAPP)》(编号：2014 318 223 010),以平整度为出发点,建立在不同截面信息及养护活动干预下沥青路面使用性能的演化规律,从而为养护规划中确定养护时机及最佳养护方案提供现实依据,也为进一步完善科学化养护规划体系提供了思路。本文在平整度影响因素机理分析及大量已有研究的基础上,总结出平整度发展的影响因素可以分为七类,分别为：路面病害、路龄、交通荷载、路面结构、环境、初始平整度和养护活动。在此基础上,结合我国沥青路面长期使用性能数据库中数据类型,提取出所有与平整度有关的数据项,并对所有数据进行预处理,完成沥青路面平整度数据库的重构。最后,采用统计学方法对不同的检测数据和属性数据进行分析,得到其统计学规律与对比分析。对影响因素进行逐项分析,选择其中的三大类截面信息：路面病害、交通荷载和路面结构作为变量分析的候选变量,并细化为11个具体变量。通过因子分析与聚类分析的对比研究,确定采用SAS统计分析软件对候选变量进行变量聚类分析,最终确定平整度预测模型的输入变量为破损率、交通量和路面结构指数。通过各种预测方法及理论的对比分析,选择适合于面板数据建模的混合效应模型作为平整度预测模型的统计学理论基础,以Logistic模型为基础模型采用SAS中的NLMIXED模块建立新建路面平整度的非线性混合效应模型。模型中的随机效应能够体现不同路段的差异性,而在参数中引入协变量不仅能够进一步解释各路段的差异性,还可以在一定程度上提高模型拟合精度。同时,模型的建立验证了非线性混合效应模型在平整度预测中的适用性,为接下来的养护活动干预研究提供了理论基础。最后,基于非线性混合效应模型研究养护活动干预下沥青路面的平整度衰变规律,并分析不同养护措施、养护前平整度值及养护路段的路面结构指数对养护活动后平整度演化规律的影响；综合以上分析,结合养护阈值的确定、费用效益分析等,最终提出基于平整度的沥青路面养护规划体系。
[Abstract]:As a comprehensive index in the performance system, smoothness can not only evaluate the driving quality of pavement, but also provide the basis for maintenance decision. Based on the construction science and technology project of Ministry of Transportation (LAPP) (No. 2014 318223 010), this paper establishes the evolution law of asphalt pavement performance under the intervention of different cross section information and maintenance activities, which provides a realistic basis for determining the maintenance time and the best maintenance scheme in the maintenance planning, and also provides an idea for further perfecting the scientific maintenance planning system. Based on the mechanism analysis of the influencing factors of smoothness and a large number of existing studies, this paper summarizes that the influencing factors of flatness development can be divided into seven categories: pavement disease, road age, traffic load, pavement structure, environment, initial smoothness and maintenance activities. On this basis, combined with the data types in the long-term performance database of asphalt pavement in China, all the data items related to smoothness are extracted, and all the data are preprocessed to complete the reconstruction of asphalt pavement smoothness database. Finally, the statistical method is used to analyze the different detection data and attribute data, and the statistical law and comparative analysis are obtained. The influencing factors are analyzed item by item, and three kinds of cross section information are selected: pavement disease, traffic load and pavement structure as candidate variables for variable analysis, and refined into 11 specific variables. Through the comparative study of factor analysis and cluster analysis, it is determined that SAS statistical analysis software is used to cluster the candidate variables, and finally the input variables of the smoothness prediction model are damage rate, traffic volume and pavement structure index. Through the comparative analysis of various prediction methods and theories, the mixed effect model suitable for panel data modeling is selected as the statistical theoretical basis of the smoothness prediction model. Based on the Logistic model, the nonlinear mixed effect model of the smoothness of the new pavement is established by using the NLMIXED module of SAS. The random effect in the model can reflect the difference of different road sections, and the introduction of covariables into the parameters can not only further explain the differences of each road section, but also improve the fitting accuracy of the model to a certain extent. At the same time, the establishment of the model verifies the applicability of the nonlinear mixed effect model in smoothness prediction, and provides a theoretical basis for the next study of conservation intervention. Finally, based on the nonlinear mixed effect model, the smoothness decay law of asphalt pavement under the intervention of maintenance activities is studied, and the influence of different maintenance measures, leveling value before maintenance and pavement structure index on the evolution law of smoothness after maintenance activities is analyzed. Based on the above analysis, combined with the determination of maintenance threshold, cost-benefit analysis and so on, the asphalt pavement maintenance planning system based on smoothness is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U416.217

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