transportation industry carbon emissions LMDI model decompos

  本文关键词：上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析

Measurement and Decomposition Analysis on Carbon Emissions of Transportation Industry in Shanghai

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WU Kai - ya, HE Cai - hong, WANG Gui - xin, ZHANG Hao（ 1. National Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,中国上海200433; [2]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,中国安徽合肥230009; [3]复旦大学人口研究所,中国上海200433; [4]复旦大学环境科学系,中国上海200433

文章摘要：依据IPCC清单指南报告，以能源消耗为对象，测算2000-2010年上海市交通运输业能源消费碳排放量、人均碳排放量以及碳排放强度的变化趋势。以2000年为基年，采用LMDI分解方法，，对上海市交通运输领域能源消费碳排量的变化进行分解分析。结果表明：①交通碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势，其中能源强度的下降起主要作用。能源结构对促进碳排放强度的下降作用较弱，但有增强趋势。②交通碳排放量不断增加。其中人口数量和人均GDP始终表现为正效应，起促进作用；能源强度除2004年外均表现为负效应，起抑制作用；能源结构始终表现为负效应，对减少碳排放有重要作用。

Abstr：On the basis of the statistical data of the IPCC reports, the paper calculates the carbon emissions from the transportation industry in Shanghai during 2000-2010, and then analyzes the tendency for the changes of carbon emissions per capita and carbon emission intensity. Taking 2000 as the base year, using LMDI decomposition method, the change of carbon emissions from traffic energy consumption has been decomposed. The results show： （1） The carbon emission intensity from traffic energy decreased, with energy intensity playing a major role. The effect of energy structure to the promotion of reducing carbon emission intensity was weak, but it appeared increasing trend. （2） Traffic carbon emissions increased year by year. The resident population and per capita GDP had promoting effects on increasing traffic carbon emissions, always producing positive effect. Except 2004, energy intensity always had negative effect. Energy structure always produced negative effect, having an important role for reducing carbon emissions.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:transportation industry carbon emissions LMDI model decomposition analysis Shanghai

课题项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目（10ZD＆032）;国家自然科学基金项目（71173047）;教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（09YJA790045）

  本文关键词：上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。