高速精密数控车床可靠性评价、分配和预测技术研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 09:49

本文选题：数控车床 + 可靠性评价　；参考：《河南科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：数控机床是制造业的基础,其可靠性水平直接影响我国制造业的发展,可靠性作为衡量数控机床尤其是高档数控机床质量水平的重要指标,对其进行评价、分配和预测已经逐渐成为国家和企业关注的焦点。本文依托国家“高档数控机床与基础制造装备”科技重大专项—ADGM系列高速精密数控车床及车削中心(2012ZX04005-021),以国产某系列高速精密数控车床为研究对象,对其进行可靠性评价、分配和预测技术研究。论文的主要研究内容有:1基于混合威布尔分布完成数控车床可靠性评价。通过对收集到的51个故障数据进行处理和分析,确定其符合威布尔分布,再分别采用单、混合威布尔分布对故障数据进行建模,并使用D检验法检验模型的拟合优度,通过对比拟合结果,确定混合威布尔分布模型更符合实际情况,然后使用非线性最小二乘法估计混合威布尔模型的参数,最后在确定分布模型的基础上计算数控车床可靠性指标的估计值。2基于改进模糊层次分析法完成数控车床可靠性分配。鉴于数控车床复杂性和影响可靠性分配的因素多且不易被精确测量,把数控车床简化成12个子系统,在层次结构中考虑影响可靠性分配的6个影响因素,并综合考虑以上系统组成和影响因素建立一个可靠性层次分配模型,使用改进模糊层次分析法对数控车床进行可靠性分配,最后通过对比验证表明改进模糊层次分析法对数控车床的可靠性分配有较好的实用性。3基于灰色理论完成关键子系统可靠性预测。借助已有的故障信息,并结合故障数据的特点,对收集到的电气系统的故障间隔时间进行处理并验证其光滑性和准指数特性,在数据满足一定条件的前提下基于灰色理论建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并对建立的预测模型进行残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验,提出三种不同的方案并分别建立其预测模型,对三种预测模型进行对比并最终确定最优方案,完成电气系统的可靠性预测,并基于灰色理论开发可靠性预测软件。本论文中的研究成果已经在ADGM系列高速精密数控车床的可靠性设计中得到应用。
[Abstract]:Numerical control machine tool is the foundation of manufacturing industry, and its reliability level directly affects the development of our manufacturing industry. Reliability is an important index to measure the quality level of numerical control machine tool, especially high-grade numerical control machine tool. Distribution and prediction have gradually become the focus of national and enterprise attention. Based on the national "high-grade CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment", a series of high speed precision CNC lathes and turning centers, a series of high speed precision CNC lathes made in China are studied, and the reliability of these lathes is evaluated. Research on Distribution and Prediction techniques. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1. The reliability evaluation of CNC lathe based on mixed Weibull distribution. Through processing and analyzing the 51 fault data collected, it is determined that the fault data accords with Weibull distribution, and then the fault data is modeled by single and mixed Weibull distribution, and the goodness of fit of the model is verified by using D test method. By comparing the fitting results, it is determined that the mixed Weibull distribution model is more suitable for the actual situation, and then the nonlinear least square method is used to estimate the parameters of the mixed Weibull model. Finally, on the basis of determining the distribution model, the estimated value of reliability index of NC lathe is calculated. 2. The reliability distribution of NC lathe is completed based on the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. In view of the complexity of CNC lathe and the factors that affect reliability distribution are many and difficult to be accurately measured, the CNC lathe is simplified into 12 subsystems, and six factors affecting reliability distribution are considered in the hierarchical structure. Considering the above system composition and influencing factors, a reliability hierarchical distribution model is established, and the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to distribute the reliability of NC lathe. Finally, the comparison and verification show that the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process has good practicability for the reliability distribution of NC lathe. 3. Based on the grey theory, the reliability prediction of the key subsystem is completed. With the help of the existing fault information and the characteristics of the fault data, the fault interval time of the collected electrical system is processed and its smoothness and quasi-exponential characteristics are verified. On the premise that the data satisfy certain conditions, the grey GM1 / 1) prediction model is established based on the grey theory, and the residual error test, correlation degree test and posteriori error test are carried out for the established prediction model, and three different schemes are put forward and their prediction models are established respectively. The reliability prediction software of electrical system is developed based on grey theory by comparing the three prediction models and determining the optimal scheme. The research results in this paper have been applied in the reliability design of ADGM series high speed precision CNC lathe.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TG519.1

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