惠普家用电脑售后服务话务量预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 20:45

本文选题：呼叫中心　切入点：话务量预测　出处：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：呼叫中心(Call Center)最早起源于40多年前的民航业,20世纪90年代的中后期,它被引入到中国。伴随着近些年中国经济的快速增长、企业竞争和客户服务意识的提高等因素,促使中国呼叫中心产业在短短的10余年时间内高速发展。目前呼叫中心的运营模式主要有“自建”和“外包”两种,但无论是哪种模式在运营管理方面普遍面临着两个主要问题:话务量不均衡和人员成本比重大。特别对于外包模式的呼叫中心,伴随着近些年行业竞争趋势的日益激烈,如何把握人力资源的高效利用与客户服务水平之间的平衡,有效控制运营成本,特别是人员成本,成为了该行业的核心竞争力之一。但要控制好人力资源成本,准确的话务量预测是重要的前提。本文首先介绍了呼叫中心的排队理论,以及其在呼叫中心运营管理中的广泛应用。然后结合实际对惠普中国家用台式电脑售后服务项目的业务背景和目前运营情况进行了阐述,由于该项目是外包项目,因此本文着重对该项目的盈利关键因素进行了分析,和其他外包项目类似,在保证服务水平的情况下,如何降低人员成本,成为了提高该项目盈利能力的重要因素,因此准确的话务量预测也就成为了一个关键的前提。之后,通过分析该项目组2009年和2010年的实际年话务量数据以及其波动规律,本文提出了针对于普通日话务量的分段回归预测法和针对于节日话务量的数据统计预测法。然后基于2009年的话务量数据,计算出了对于2010年话务量的预测模型,并分别对预测模型自身的准确性以及其预测的能力进行了检验。在模型检验的过程中发现,对于不同的年份,话务量在全年各月中的波动走势基本类似,但当各年间话务量数量发生明显变化时,如仍沿用上年的数据模型,在预测时会对结果产生巨大的误差。因此,本文对原来建立回归模型的方法提出了修正:每月通过计算最近三月的话务量变化趋势,对原话务量数据进行调整后,再建立回归模型对下月的话务量进行预测。再次用实际发生的话务量验证后,表明此方法建立的预测模型大大提高了预测的准确性。最后,基于所建立的预测模型,本文对惠普该项目的运营管理提出了若干点建议。
[Abstract]:Call Center originated from the civil aviation industry more than 40 years ago in the middle and late period of 90s of the 20th century, and it was introduced to China. With the rapid economic growth of China in recent years, the competition of enterprises and the improvement of customer service consciousness, etc. To promote the rapid development of China's call center industry in a short period of more than 10 years. At present, there are two main modes of operation of the call center: "self-building" and "outsourcing". However, no matter which mode is facing two main problems in operation management: unbalanced traffic and large proportion of personnel cost, especially for the call center of outsourcing mode, with the increasingly fierce competition trend of the industry in recent years. How to grasp the balance between the efficient utilization of human resources and the level of customer service, and how to effectively control the operating cost, especially the personnel cost, has become one of the core competitiveness of the industry. Accurate traffic prediction is an important prerequisite. This paper first introduces the queuing theory of call center. And its wide application in the operation and management of call center. Then, the business background and current operation situation of the after-sales service project for desktop computers in Hewlett-Packard countries are expounded, because the project is an outsourced project. Therefore, this paper focuses on the key factors of profit of the project, and similar to other outsourcing projects, how to reduce the personnel cost and improve the profitability of the project has become an important factor in improving the profitability of the project under the condition of ensuring the level of service. Therefore, accurate traffic prediction becomes a key prerequisite. Then, by analyzing the actual annual traffic data of 2009 and 2010 and their fluctuation rules, In this paper, a piecewise regression forecasting method for ordinary daily traffic and a statistical prediction method for holiday traffic are proposed. Based on the traffic data of 2009, the prediction model for 2010 traffic is calculated. The accuracy of the prediction model itself and its prediction ability are tested respectively. In the process of model checking, it is found that for different years, the fluctuation trend of traffic in each month of the whole year is basically similar. However, when the volume of traffic changes significantly over the years, if the data model of the previous year is still used, the prediction will have a huge error in the results. In this paper, the method of establishing regression model is revised: by calculating the change trend of traffic on March, the original traffic data is adjusted. Then the regression model is established to predict the traffic of next month. After the actual traffic is verified again, it is shown that the prediction model established by this method greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction. Finally, based on the established prediction model, This paper puts forward some suggestions on the operation and management of HP's project.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F416.671;F274

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