基于ORYZA2000模型的华北地区旱稻干旱风险评估

发布时间：2018-02-04 01:31

  本文关键词： 旱稻 ORYZA模型 干旱强度 产量灾损 风险评估 华北地区　出处：《干旱地区农业研究》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对华北地区旱稻产量年际不稳定的问题,利用作物生长模拟技术与数理统计相结合的方法,对华北地区气候背景下旱稻生长季内干旱风险进行了定量评估。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率(即水分亏缺指数),以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度以及产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明,华北地区旱稻全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.35~0.45之间,其中出苗~穗分化阶段指数值在各生育阶段中最高。干旱灾损指数变化在0.24~0.50之间,其中河北的西北部、山东北部及河南的南部较高。就干旱强度风险及灾损风险而言,空间分布趋势基本一致,风险指数低的地区主要分布在河北北部、山东南部等地区,河北中南部、河南大部等地风险指数较高;就综合风险指数而言,高值区主要分布在河南的西部和南部、山东北部以及河北中部的部分地区,低值区主要分布在北京、天津、河北北部、山东大部以及河南北部的大部分地区。总体上看,华北大部地区旱稻干旱综合风险较低,但在农业生产实际中仍不能忽视高风险区的干旱应对及防御。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of interannual instability of upland rice yield in North China, the method of combining crop growth simulation technique with mathematical statistics was used. The drought risk of upland rice in growing season under climatic background in North China was quantitatively evaluated. Water deficit index). Taking the loss rate of yield relative to potential yield (disaster loss index) as the evaluation index of yield disaster loss intensity under the condition of rain conservation, the drought risk assessment model was constructed from two angles of drought degree and yield loss. Drought risk assessment was carried out. The results showed that the water deficit index of upland rice in North China was between 0.35 and 0.45 at the whole growth stage. The index of emergence and panicle differentiation stage was the highest in each growing stage, and the dry drought damage index varied from 0.24 to 0.50, especially in the northwest of Hebei Province. In terms of drought intensity risk and disaster loss risk, the spatial distribution trend is basically the same. The areas with low risk index are mainly distributed in northern Hebei, southern Shandong and other areas. The risk index of central and southern Hebei and most of Henan is higher. As far as the comprehensive risk index is concerned, the high value areas are mainly distributed in the west and south of Henan, the northern part of Shandong and the central part of Hebei, while the low value areas are mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and northern Hebei. In general, the drought risk of upland rice in most areas of North China is relatively low, but the drought response and prevention in high risk areas can not be ignored in the agricultural production practice.
【作者单位】： 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;河南省气象科学研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41005058)
【分类号】：S423;S511.6
【正文快照】： 旱稻是从水稻品种通过人工选育而产生的变异型,可以像小麦、玉米一样在旱地直接播种,一生勿需淹水层,在干旱达到一定程度时辅以适量的灌水即可满足其生理需求;同时旱稻又具有“水陆两栖”的特点,在淹水条件下同样能正常生长并获得更好的产量水平。旱稻适宜在缺水的低洼地区或，

本文编号：1488920