村域尺度农户耕地集约利用模型构建与应用

发布时间：2018-03-01 17:17

本文关键词： 耕地集约利用 MAS模型框架村庄尺度土地利用模拟　出处：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农户耕地集约利用评价、模型与模拟是耕地可持续利用的基础,通过对农户耕地集约利用影响因素及模型构建与应用的研究,积极引导农民科学、合理、高效利用耕地,提高耕地生产率。针对目前微观农户尺度耕地集约利用模型模拟方法的不足,借助MAS(Multi-Agent System)模型框架,从农户个体与环境之间相互作用的角度出发,构造新的农户耕地集约利用模型,利用构建的模型对农户耕地集约利用水平进行模拟预测,对于农村、农户政策调整与制定具有重要理论与实践意义。以2013-2015年陕西省米脂县农户调查数据为基础,首先对农户耕地集约利用影响因素进行分析,找出影响农户耕地集约利用的因素。然后基于MAS模型框架构建农户耕地集约利用模型,利用实际调查数据进行验证及模型修正,使模型精度达到要求。最后对2016年农户耕地集约利用进行预测,研究结论如下:(1)米脂县部分村庄农户耕地集约利用受市场、同类农户以及不同类农户的影响,影响权重分别为0.49、0.16、0.35,农户耕地集约利用受市场的影响最大,其次为不同类农户,影响最小的为同类农户。(2)基于MAS框架构建农户耕地集约利用模型,并使用2014、2015年农户耕地集约利用数据对模型进行验证,得到了较为契合2014年、2015实际耕地集约利用水平的模拟结果,模拟精度可达到87%。基于2015年模拟结果对2016年进行预测,从预测结果来看:张山村、鲍庄耕地集约利用水平基本不变,仍属于一般集约利用型;高庄、何家庄、豆家沟以及桃镇耕地集约利用水平有所提高,但仍处在一般集约利用状态;2015-2016年牛沟、吕家沟及崖上村耕地集约利用水平保持不变。整体上,米脂县集约利用水平呈上升趋势,但集约利用水平还是较低,调查村庄耕地集约利用水平处在不集约利用型与一般集约利用型状态之间,耕地利用水平仍较为粗放。政府方面应该积极引导农户规范化耕种,合理配置生产资料,提高生产资料的使用效率,促进农户耕地利用的集约化发展。
[Abstract]:The evaluation, model and simulation of intensive utilization of cultivated land by farmers are the basis of sustainable utilization of cultivated land. Through the study of influencing factors and model construction and application of intensive utilization of cultivated land, farmers are actively guided to make scientific, rational and efficient use of cultivated land. In order to improve the productivity of cultivated land, aiming at the deficiency of the present model simulation method of intensive use of cultivated land on the scale of micro-peasant households, and with the help of the MAS(Multi-Agent system model framework, from the point of view of the interaction between individual farmers and the environment, A new model of intensive utilization of farm land is constructed, and the model is used to simulate and predict the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in rural areas. The adjustment and formulation of peasant household policy is of great theoretical and practical significance. Based on the survey data of farmers in Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2015, this paper first analyzes the factors affecting the intensive use of cultivated land by farmers. Find out the factors that affect the intensive utilization of farm land, and then construct the model of intensive utilization of farmland based on MAS model, and use the actual survey data to verify and modify the model. Finally, the paper forecasts the intensive utilization of farmland in 2016. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the intensive utilization of cultivated land in some villages in Mizhi County is affected by the market, the same kind of farmers and different types of farmers. The influence weight is 0.49 ~ (0.16) ~ (0.35) respectively. The intensive utilization of cultivated land is influenced by the market, followed by different types of farmers, and the least influence is the same kind of farmers.) based on the MAS framework, the model of intensive utilization of cultivated land is constructed. The model is verified by using the data of intensive use of cultivated land in 2014 and 2015, and the simulation results are in good agreement with the actual cultivated land intensive utilization level in 2014 and 2015. The simulation accuracy can reach 87. Based on the results of 2015 simulation, the paper forecasts 2015. According to the forecast results, the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in Zhangshan Village and Baozhuang is basically unchanged and still belongs to the general intensive utilization type, while the intensive use level of cultivated land in Gaozhuang, Hejiazhuang, Doujiagou and Taozhen has been improved. But it is still in the general intensive utilization state of Niugou in 2015-2016, and the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in Lujiagou and Yashang Village remains unchanged. On the whole, the intensive utilization level of Mizhi County is on the rise, but the intensive utilization level is still low. The level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in villages is between non-intensive utilization and general intensive utilization, and the level of cultivated land utilization is still extensive. The government should actively guide farmers to standardize their cultivation and reasonably allocate the means of production. Improve the efficiency of the use of means of production, promote the intensive use of agricultural land development.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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