东北地区耕地地力与粮食生产能力研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 13:33

本文选题：耕地地力　切入点：生产能力　出处：《沈阳农业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：耕地是构成粮食综合生产能力的最基本要素之一,是实现国家粮食安全的基础和保证。东北地区作为我国重要的粮食主产区和商品粮供给区,在未来国家粮食安全格局中将承担更为重要的任务。从耕地生产能力角度探讨东北地区粮食安全保障能力对服务于国家粮食安全、生态安全和农业可持续发展战略具有重要现实意义。本文以东北地区(辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省、蒙东四盟市地区)为研究对象,在查阅大量文献的基础上,结合东北地区特点,运用GIS技术,土壤学、土壤肥力学等知识,对研究区2003-2013年县域耕地地力评价数据进行描述及分析,利用地力评价数据开展土壤养分时空变异分析、东北地区耕地地力等级水平评价、粮食生产能力测算、潜力分析及粮食安全保障能力等内容的研究,获得如下结果：(1)基于地统计学和GIS相结合的方法,分析东北地区2010年耕地土壤养分的空间变异特征,绘制土壤养分含量空间分布图；与第二次土壤普查时期(1980年)的养分状况进行对比,分析养分的时间演变特征。结果表明,东北地区土壤养分平均含量在3级,有机质、碱解氮变异性强烈,空间上从南向北、从西南向东北逐渐升高；全氮、有效磷、速效钾中等空间相关性,全氮、速效钾空间分布趋势与有机质相似,有效磷空间分布呈东北、西南高,中间低趋势。30年来,东北地区有机质、全氮、碱解氮含量下降,有效磷大幅度增加,速效钾则因地区施肥种类和习惯的不同而有所不同。(2)在GIS支持下,利用土壤图、土地利用现状图、行政区划图进行叠加划分评价单元,从气候条件、立地条件、剖面性状、土壤养分、土壤理化性状和土壤管理6方面构建东北地区耕地地力评价指标体系,运用层次分析法、数据模糊方法和特尔菲法相结合的方法进行耕地地力综合评价。结果表明,东北地区耕地地力指数0.5-0.93,共划分为10等,其中高产田(1-3等)92.75万hm2,占耕地总面积的27.71%；中产田(4-7等)2161.88万hrn2,占耕地总面积的60.32%；低产田(8-10等)429.06万hm2,占耕地总面积的11.97%。(3)利用迈阿密模型进行气候潜力测算,在此基础上进行耕地地力、化肥增产效力逐级修正,测算区域耕地生产能力和粮食生产能力。并依此作为粮食安全保障能力分析的基础。分别从最大人口承载量、粮食剩余生产力指标来进行区域保障能力分析。结果表明：东北地区县域气候生产潜力4.65-13.06t/hm2(平均8.67t/hm2),耕地生产能力2.77-9.38t/hm2 (6.63t/hm2);粮食生产能力2.97-12.1t/hm2 (7.64t/hm2),结合粮食播种面积,东北地区粮食总生产能力1.784亿吨,以400kg标准人均粮食占有量计算,东北地区总剩余生产力1.3656亿t,在保障当地经济发展的前提下,可保证全国其他地区3.414亿人的粮食供给。(4)采用气候生产潜力与实际产量之间的差额来估算东北地区增产潜力,并对影响粮食增产的限制因素进行聚类分析。结果表明：东北地区县域增产潜力0.90-8.82t/hm2,平均3.44t/hm2。由自然条件及基础设施等差异引起的增产潜力平均2.04t/hm2；由社会经济因素,如技术、农民的投入和耕作习惯等引起增产潜力平均平均1.40t/hm2。各省份来看,辽宁省县域平均增产潜力(3.99t/hm2)吉林省(3.59t/hm2)黑龙江(3.34t/hm2)蒙东四盟市(2.60t/hm2)。在8种限制因素组合类型的基础上将东北地区耕地分为全面型整治、选择型整治,提升型三种类型,如何提高耕地地力,消除区域耕地地力差异以及障碍性因素,最大限度地发挥区域粮食生产潜力向现实产量的转化是未来东北地区增强粮食生产能力的主要方向。
[Abstract]:The cultivated land is one of the most basic elements of the comprehensive grain production capacity, is the basis and guarantee to achieve national food security. The northeast region as an important grain producing areas and grain supply area in China, is a more important task in the future national food security pattern will bear. From the point of view of the production capacity of cultivated land protection ability of food security in Northeast China to serve the area of national food security, has the important practical significance of ecological security and agricultural sustainable development strategy. The paper takes the Northeast (Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province, Mongolia dongsimeng City area) as the research object, based on the literatures, combined with the characteristics of Northeast China, the use of GIS technology, soil science. Soil mechanics and other knowledge, the study area 2003-2013 years of farmland productivity evaluation data description and analysis, the soil nutrient utilization of temporal and spatial variation of soil fertility evaluation data Analysis and evaluation of cultivated land fertility level in Northeast China, the grain production capacity calculation, analysis and Research on the potential food safety guarantee and so on, the results are as follows: (1) the geostatistical method combined with GIS based on the analysis of the spatial variability of soil nutrient of cultivated land in Northeast China in 2010, the content of soil nutrient distribution map drawing space; with the second soil survey period (1980) compared the nutrient status, nutrient evolution characteristics of the time. The results showed that the average content of soil nutrients in Northeast China in 3, organic matter, nitrogen variability strong space from the south to the north, increased gradually from southwest to northeast; total nitrogen, available phosphorus. K moderate spatial correlation, total nitrogen, available potassium and organic matter similar spatial distribution trend, spatial distribution of available phosphorus was northeast, southwest high, middle and low tendency of.30 years, the Northeast organic whole. Nitrogen, nitrogen content decreased, available phosphorus increased, K fertilizer types and area due to the different habits and different. (2) under the support of GIS, using the soil map, land use map, classifies the evaluation unit of administrative zoning map from the climatic conditions, site conditions, profile properties, soil nutrient, soil chemical properties and soil management evaluation index system of cultivated land in Northeast China in 6 aspects, using the analytic hierarchy process, comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land fertility method combining data fuzzy method and Delphi method. The results show that the cultivated land fertility index in Northeast China 0.5-0.93, is divided into 10, the high yield field (1-3) 927 thousand and 500 Hm2, accounting for 27.71% of the total area of cultivated land; (4-7) the middle field of 21 million 618 thousand and 800 hrn2, accounting for 60.32% of the total area of arable land; farmland (8-10) 4 million 290 thousand and 600 Hm2, accounting for 11.97%. of the total farmland (3) by Miami model The climatic potential calculation, on the basis of soil fertility, fertilizer effect of stepwise correction, the ability to measure regional cultivated land productivity and food production. And then as a basis for analysis of food security ability. Respectively from the maximum carrying capacity of population, grain production capacity of the remaining indicators for analysis of regional support capacity. The results showed that the production potential of 4.65-13.06t/hm2 the climate in Northeast China (average 8.67t/hm2), 2.77-9.38t/hm2 (6.63t/hm2) production capacity of cultivated land; grain production capacity of 2.97-12.1t/hm2 (7.64t/hm2), combined with the grain planting area in Northeast China, the total production capacity of 1.784 tons of grain, with the 400kg standard of per capita grain, northeast total surplus productivity 136 million 560 thousand T, in the local economic development under the premise of ensuring 341 million 400 thousand, can guarantee the people in other parts of the country's food supply. (4) the climate production potential and actual production The difference between the amount of estimated potential yield in Northeast China, and the influence on grain yield limiting factors by cluster analysis. The results showed that: 0.90-8.82t/hm2 county yield potential in Northeast China, the average 3.44t/hm2. flat yield potential caused by natural conditions and infrastructure differences were 2.04t/hm2; by the social economic factors, such as technology, farmers and farming inputs habits caused by each province average yield potential of 1.40t/hm2., the county of Liaoning Province, the average yield potential (3.99t/hm2) of Jilin province (3.59t/hm2) Heilongjiang (3.34t/hm2) Mongolia dongsimeng city (2.60t/hm2). In the 8 types on the basis of limiting factors of cultivated land is divided into comprehensive remediation, selection remediation, lifting three types, how to improve the productivity of cultivated land, cultivated land to eliminate regional differences and obstacles, to maximize the potential of grain production area to the present The conversion of real output is the main direction to enhance the grain production capacity of the northeast region in the future.

【学位授予单位】：沈阳农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F326.11;S158

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