基于天气预报的漳河灌区参考作物腾发量预报方法比较

发布时间：2018-04-02 17:09

本文选题：腾发量　切入点：天气预报　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年19期

【摘要】：为了提出适合湖北省漳河灌区的参考作物腾发量预报方法,以FAO56-Penman-Monteith公式采用历史气象数据计算出的值为基准,利用天气预报数据,比较Hargreaves-Samani(HS)法、逐日均值修正法及该文改进的逐日均值修正法在该灌区钟祥站点的预报精度,并评价各方法适用性。结果表明:利用这3种方法进行参考作物腾发量预报时,1~7 d预见期平均绝对误差均值分别为0.75、0.80、0.76 mm/d,均方根误差分别为1.00、1.07、1.05 mm/d,相关系数分别为0.82、0.80、0.80。1 d预见期最优预报方法为改进逐日均值修正法,2~7 d预见期的最优方法均为HS法。总体而言,预报精度最好的为HS法、改进逐日均值修正法次之、逐日均值修正法最差。对于漳河灌区,建议采用HS法进行预报,可为灌溉预报提供较为准确的数据基础。
[Abstract]:In order to propose a reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting method suitable for Zhanghe Irrigation District in Hubei Province, the Hargreaves-Samanian HS) method was compared with the values calculated by historical meteorological data from FAO56-Penman-Monteith formula and weather forecast data.The prediction accuracy of the daily mean correction method and the modified daily mean correction method in the irrigation area of Zhongxiang station are evaluated, and the applicability of each method is evaluated.The results show that the mean absolute error of the reference crop evapotranspiration prediction in 7 days is 0.75 ~ 0.80 ~ 0.76 mm / d, the root mean square error is 1.00 ~ 1.07 ~ 1.05 mm / d, and the correlation coefficient is 0.822 ~ 0.800.800.0.1 d / d, respectively, for the forecast period of reference crop evapotranspiration, the average absolute error is 0.75g / d, the root mean square error is 1.000.70,1.05 mm / d, and the correlation coefficient is 0.82d0.800.800.0.1 d respectively.The HS method is the best method to improve the daily mean correction method.In general, HS method has the best prediction accuracy, the improved daily mean correction method is the second, and the daily average correction method is the worst.For Zhanghe irrigation area, HS method is suggested to be used to forecast irrigation, which can provide more accurate data basis for irrigation forecast.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;三峡大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403200) 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(2013B110)
【分类号】：S165.22;S311

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