基于脱钩理论的城市化水平与耕地安全水平的近程耦合关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 02:34

本文选题：近程耦合 + 城市化　；参考：《生态与农村环境学报》2017年11期

【摘要】：当前我国快速城市化推进对半城市化、农村等近程区域分布的耕地产生直接、强烈的影响,也对耕地安全造成强大的胁迫效应。为此,构建城市化-耕地安全综合评价指标体系,分别计算城市化指数和耕地安全胁迫指数,并基于脱钩理论方法对城市化水平与耕地安全水平的近程耦合关系进行量化分析。以江苏省连云港市为例,定量分析2000—2014年间其城市化水平与耕地安全的脱钩-耦合关系及耕地安全对城市化进程的响应程度。结果表明,2000—2014年间,连云港市城市化指数持续增高,耕地安全胁迫指数波动降低;2000—2007年为强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩及扩张脱钩的波动状态;2008—2014年呈更加强烈的波动状态,包括2008—2012年的强脱钩和2013年的扩张负脱钩状态,这反映出区域发展规划、土地利用规划和城市总体规划的实施对这一典型近程耦合系统产生了较大影响。研究期内连云港市城市化水平大幅提高,耕地安全所受胁迫程度不断降低,两者虽总体呈强脱钩关系,但仍需注意近程耦合结果波动性较大所揭示的不确定性问题,需要谨慎权衡城市化相关政策对耕地安全的影响。与过去的宏观、单一指标模型相比,基于近程耦合关系提出的多指标脱钩-耦合模型更具综合性,能更加全面、精细化分析快速城市化进程与耕地安全保护之间的复杂关系,为半城市化地区景观安全格局评估提供支撑,为城市化与耕地保护之间的协调发展提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid urbanization of our country promotes semi-urbanization, and the distribution of cultivated land in rural areas and other short-range areas has a direct and strong impact, which also has a strong coercive effect on the security of cultivated land. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization-cultivated land security is constructed, the urbanization index and cultivated land security stress index are calculated, and the short-range coupling relationship between urbanization level and cultivated land security level is analyzed quantitatively based on decoupling theory. Taking Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province as an example, the decoupling coupling relationship between urbanization level and cultivated land security and the degree of response of cultivated land security to urbanization process from 2000 to 2014 were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the urbanization index of Lianyungang City continued to increase from 2000 to 2014, and the fluctuation of cultivated land security stress index decreased. From 2000 to 2007, it was strong decoupling and weak decoupling. The volatility of expansion negative decoupling and expansion decoupling is more volatile in 2008-2014, including strong decoupling in 2008-2012 and negative decoupling in 2013, reflecting regional development planning, The implementation of land use planning and urban master planning has a great impact on this typical short-range coupling system. During the research period, the urbanization level of Lianyungang City has been greatly improved, and the degree of stress on cultivated land safety has been continuously reduced. Although the relationship between them is generally strong decoupling, we still need to pay attention to the uncertainty problems revealed by the volatility of short-range coupling results. The impact of urbanization related policies on cultivated land security needs to be carefully weighed. Compared with the previous macro and single index model, the multi-index decoupling model based on the short-range coupling relationship is more comprehensive and more comprehensive, and it can be used to analyze the complex relationship between the rapid urbanization process and the safety and protection of cultivated land. It provides support for evaluation of landscape security pattern in semi-urbanized areas and decision support for coordinated development between urbanization and cultivated land protection.
【作者单位】：厦门大学环境与生态学院;中国科学院城市环境研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41271008) 厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划中国科学院大学生创新实践训练计划
【分类号】：F299.2;F323.211

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