基于风险模拟模型的呼伦贝尔地区春季降水分布型及春旱预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 10:15

本文选题：呼伦贝尔地区 + Z指标法　；参考：《东北师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：整个内蒙古自治区中影响程度最大、发生频率最高、造成灾情最为严重的气象灾害就是旱灾。内蒙古地区由于干旱而导致的荒漠化已经越来越严重,成为了影响空气质量、制约经济发展的主要因素之一。呼伦贝尔地处内蒙古的东北部,为高原地带,处于温带季风区与非季风区的分界线,受大兴安岭山脉的阻隔,来自西南方向的温暖气团难以到达,最终能到达研究区域上空的水汽已所剩无几。且呼伦贝尔地区春季降水少,蒸发大,干燥少雨是呼伦贝尔地区春季的主要气候特点。呼伦贝尔地区的农业自然灾害多以旱灾为主,属于常年春旱区。因此,本文对呼伦贝尔地区春季干旱情况的研究是必要的。本文重点研究呼伦贝尔地区的春旱情况,选取Z指标和湿度指标为干旱指标,对呼伦贝尔地区九个市县1960-2013年这54年间春季的降水量进行分析,划分出各指标下的干旱年份,结果得出湿度指标对呼伦贝尔地区干旱等级的划分比Z指数更贴合实际。之后利用风险模拟模型Risk Simulator○R 2013的蒙特卡罗工具及其分布分析工具,得到呼伦贝尔地区9个市县春季湿度指标的分布型,揭示了呼伦贝尔地区春季降水的变化情况,并阐述了其变化规律。之后对三个不同分布型的典型地区以及一个春季干旱概率极大值地区进行了概率密度函数、累积概率密度函数和逆累积概率的计算。最后,运用DPS中灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预来测以上四个地区下一次发生春旱的可能年份。由春季干旱造成的水量严重不足,是减缓呼伦贝尔地区农牧业发展进程的重要原因之一。尤其一年中的“春不得种”是旱灾的关键,如果春雨及时,适时播种,就可以避开秋霜的影响。尤其是内蒙古一年只能生长一季作物的种植特点,加重了农业灾害影响的分量。因此,本文对春旱的研究结果为呼伦贝尔地区预防春旱提供了理论依据,在一定程度上,可以通过人为的防御,来减轻春旱所带来的农牧业问题。
[Abstract]:Drought is the most serious meteorological disaster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. Desertification caused by drought has become more and more serious in Inner Mongolia, which has become one of the main factors affecting air quality and restricting economic development. Hulunbeir is located in the northeast of Inner Mongolia. It is a plateau area, and it is located at the boundary between the temperate monsoon region and the non-monsoon region. It is blocked by the Daxing'anling Mountains, and the warm air masses from the southwest direction are difficult to reach. There is little water vapor left over the study area. The main climatic characteristics of spring in Hulunbeir area are less precipitation, greater evaporation and less dry and less rain. The agricultural natural disasters in Hulunbeir area are mainly drought and belong to the perennial spring drought area. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spring drought in Hulunbeir area. This paper focuses on the spring drought in Hulunbeir area, selects Z index and humidity index as drought index, analyzes the spring precipitation of nine cities and counties in Hulunbeir region from 1960 to 2013, and divides the drought years under each index. The results show that the classification of drought grade in Hulunbeir area by humidity index is more practical than that by Z index. Then, by using the Monte Carlo tool of risk simulation model Risk Simulator0R 2013 and its distribution analysis tool, the distribution pattern of spring humidity index in 9 cities and counties in Hulunbeir region is obtained, and the variation of spring precipitation in Hulunbeir area is revealed. The law of its change is expounded. Then, the probability density function, cumulative probability density function and inverse cumulative probability are calculated for three typical regions with different distribution types and a spring drought probability maximum region. Finally, the possible year of the next spring drought in the above four regions is predicted by using the DPS grey system GMX1) model. The serious shortage of water caused by spring drought is one of the important reasons to slow down the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in Hulunbeir region. In particular, spring is the key to drought. If spring rains are timely and sowing, the effects of autumn frost can be avoided. In particular, Inner Mongolia can only grow one crop a year, which accentuates the impact of agricultural disasters. Therefore, the research results of spring drought in this paper provide a theoretical basis for the prevention of spring drought in Hulunbeir area. To a certain extent, the agricultural and animal husbandry problems caused by spring drought can be alleviated through artificial defense.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S423;S161.6

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