未来30a盆北山地水稻盛夏低温危害风险分析

发布时间：2018-04-30 16:53

本文选题：盛夏低温 + 风险区划　；参考：《四川师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：根据气候系统模式(BCC)第五阶段试验计划(CMIP5-RCP6.0)预测的2006—2050年各格点逐日平均温度,通过订正反演出2021—2050年盆北3个市州共15个站点(县)逐日平均温度,结合盆北山地不同品种水稻抽穗杨花期的低温指标,统计各站水稻盛夏低温频率、水稻安全播种期、安全齐穗期以及安全播种期天数差,构建水稻盛夏低温危害风险指数I,并以此进行低温危害风险区划.结果表明:1)盆北山地水稻盛夏低温频率在13%~240%之间,区域和年际之间差异较大;2)与近30 a比较,盆北山地水稻安全播种期普遍提前10 d左右,最多提前13 d,安全齐穗期平均提前5~6 d;3)海拔500 m以下为无风险区,500~700 m的区域为低风险区,700~900 m为中风险区,900~1 200 m为高风险区,1 200 m以上为不适宜区.
[Abstract]:According to the CMIP5-RCP6.0) phase V pilot scheme of the Climate system Model (BCCV), the daily average temperatures of each grid for 2006-2050 are predicted, and the daily average temperatures of 15 stations (counties) in the three cities and counties in the northern part of the basin from 2021-2050 to 2021-2050 are revised. According to the low temperature index of flowering stage of rice heading poplar, the frequency of low temperature in midsummer, safe sowing date, safe full heading stage and safe sowing date of rice were counted. The low temperature hazard risk index (I) of rice in summer was constructed, and the low temperature hazard risk regionalization was carried out. The results showed that the frequency of midsummer low temperature was between 13% and 240%, and there was a great difference between regions and years. Compared with the last 30 years, the safe sowing date of rice in the northern basin was generally advanced by about 10 days. The maximum advance time was 13 days, and the average advance of the safe full heading period was 5 ~ 6 d ~ (3) the area below 500 m above sea level was a low risk area with a low risk area of 700 ~ 900 m and a middle risk area of 900 ~ 1 200 m, and a high risk area of 1 200 m or above was an unsuitable area.
【作者单位】：达州市气象局;中国气象局成都高原气象研究所;
【基金】：西南区域重大科研业务项目(西南区域2013-2) 四川省科技支撑计划项目(2013NZ0046)
【分类号】：S42;S511

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