农业经济发展与农业碳排放的实证关系研究——以上海郊区农业为例

发布时间：2018-05-11 22:35

本文选题：环境库茨涅兹曲线 + 农业碳排放　；参考：《生态经济》2017年10期

【摘要】：通过实证研究判断上海农业发展是否以环境质量下降为代价。首先,参照IPCC及上海农业碳排放前期研究,核算上海9个郊县的农业碳汇和碳排放量,分析农业碳排放的发展趋势、农业碳排放强度和农业碳排放结构,农业能耗在农业碳排放总量中所占比例从2002年的50%增加到2012年的80%。然后,利用STATA13.0软件对上海9个郊区在1993—2013年农业生产活动的面板数据进行分析,检验上海郊区农业发展与农业碳排放者之间是否存在类似环境库茨涅兹曲线关系,回归结果显示,平均每1亿元农业产值将带来0.825 0万吨CO_2排放当量,95%置信区间为(0.743 0,0.907 0)。最后,基于农业碳排放估算和实证分析结果,提出上海进一步减少农业碳排放的方向和具体措施。
[Abstract]:The empirical study is used to determine whether Shanghai's agricultural development is at the cost of environmental quality decline. First of all, referring to IPCC and the previous study of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanghai, we calculate the agricultural carbon sinks and carbon emissions of 9 suburban counties in Shanghai, analyze the development trend of agricultural carbon emissions, the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions and the structure of agricultural carbon emissions. The share of agricultural energy consumption in total agricultural carbon emissions increased from 50% in 2002 to 80% in 2012. Then, using STATA13.0 software to analyze the panel data of agricultural production activities in 9 suburbs of Shanghai from 1993 to 2013, to test whether there is a similar relationship between agricultural development and agricultural carbon emitters in Shanghai suburbs. The regression results show that the average confidence interval of 95% of CO_2 emissions per 100 million yuan agricultural output value is 0.743 0 / 0.907 0 / 100 million yuan. Finally, based on the estimation of agricultural carbon emissions and the results of empirical analysis, the direction and specific measures for further reducing agricultural carbon emissions in Shanghai are put forward.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学经管学院;
【基金】：2016年上海市教委高校教师产学研践习项目“上海低碳农业发展探索”(A1-2014-16-003)
【分类号】：F327;X71

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