严寒地区绿色村镇清洁能源推进主体的多目标群决策分析

发布时间：2018-05-29 12:29

本文选题：绿色村镇 + 清洁能源　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国正处在“十二五”末期,同时也是深化改革的关键阶段,为了避免农村地区在城镇化进程中重蹈城市“边发展边污染、先发展后治理”的覆辙,如何将农村能源消费结构逐渐引导至安全、经济、可持续、清洁的消费状态上,是社会主义新农村建设及绿色村镇推进过程中亟待解决的重要问题。论文结合我国严寒地区村镇的清洁能源现状,对推进机制问题进行了研究。农村清洁能源的推进是一项涉及众多决策主体的系统工程,目前对主体间的利益冲突问题的探讨相对欠缺。为了有效的解决政府部门、农民、企业等推进主体间的利益冲突,从系统、博弈模拟角度出发,构建出一套强调决策主体交互性的寒地农村清洁能源推进机制具有重要意义。传统的清洁能源机制基本遵循“实施之后看效果”的路线,为了避免传统制度由上至下制定、实施产生的无效性,本文构建的引入冲突分析的多目标群决策模型应运而生。论文首先基于政策推演法(Policy Gaming)构建出若干农村清洁能源推进机制,应用Fuzzy AHP方法,确定属性权重,经过阈值筛选,得到局中人可选策略集。在此基础上,采用冲突分析方法,对多目标群决策模型进行求解分析,提出了一套具有针对性和实践性的机制。与其他模型相比,本模型将难以定量描述的现实问题进行了数学表述,同时对决策者所面临的冲突问题可能出现的最终结局进行模拟和预测,更加有助于决策者的分析和判断。在理论分析基础上,以黑龙江省下属村镇——新安镇为案例分析对象,进行了实证分析。多目标群决策模型分析结果表明,对于新安镇而言,11号结局是该地农村清洁能源推进过程最适宜实施的最优机制,是帕累托效率均衡解。
[Abstract]:China is at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and it is also a key stage for deepening reform. In order to avoid repeating the "pollution while developing while pollution" in the urbanization process in rural areas, we should develop first and then harness it. How to gradually guide the rural energy consumption structure to the safe, economic, sustainable and clean consumption state is an important problem to be solved in the construction of new socialist countryside and the promotion of green villages and towns. Based on the current situation of clean energy in villages and towns in cold regions of China, this paper studies the propulsion mechanism. The promotion of rural clean energy is a systematic project involving many decision makers. In order to effectively solve the conflicts of interests among government departments, farmers, enterprises and so on, it is of great significance to construct a set of promotion mechanism of clean energy in cold rural areas from the point of view of system and game simulation. The traditional clean energy mechanism basically follows the route of "seeing the effect after the implementation". In order to avoid the invalidity of the traditional system from top to bottom, the multi-objective group decision-making model of conflict analysis was constructed in this paper. Firstly, based on the policy extrapolation method, some rural clean energy promotion mechanisms are constructed. The attribute weight is determined by using Fuzzy AHP method, and the optional policy set is obtained by threshold selection. On this basis, the conflict analysis method is used to solve the multi-objective group decision model, and a set of targeted and practical mechanism is proposed. Compared with other models, this model makes mathematical representation of the practical problems which are difficult to describe quantitatively, and simulates and predicts the possible final outcome of the conflict problems faced by decision makers, which is more helpful to the analysis and judgment of decision makers. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper takes the subordinate village of Heilongjiang Province-Xin'an Town as the case study object, carries on the empirical analysis. The results of multi-objective group decision-making model show that, for Xinanzhen, the 11th outcome is the most suitable mechanism for implementing the process of promoting clean energy in the rural areas, and the Pareto efficiency equilibrium solution.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.214

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