基于能值—生态足迹改进模型的浙江省耕地可持续利用研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 08:04

本文选题：能值分析 + 生态足迹　；参考：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以耕地可持续利用为切入点,应用基于能值分析的生态足迹改进模型,从国家公顷和省公顷的角度出发修正了浙江省耕地产量因子,在此基础上构建耕地生态可持续利用指数,从时间维度上对浙江省2003～2012年的耕地可持续利用状况进行了动态分析,从空间维度上对浙江省2012年11个地级市的耕地可持续利用状况进行了空间差异分析,并以浙江省2012年人均耕地生态足迹为定值,对浙江省11个地级市进行生态、经济和社会IPAT综合分析。最后,运用灰色理论GM(1,1)预测模型对浙江省2013～2018年的人均耕地生态承载力和人均耕地生态足迹进行预测,并计算分析了这五年的耕地可持续利用指数。结果表明：2003～2012年浙江省人均耕地生态承载力持续处于比较低的水平,并且较为稳定；人均耕地生态足迹呈波状下降趋势；十年间人均生态赤字状况有所缓和,但耕地可持续利用指数基本保持在0.2150～0.2664之间,耕地利用状态为中等不可持续。浙江省各地市的人均耕地生态承载力和人均耕地生态足迹则都表现出较强的空间差异性；2012年浙江省各地市耕地生态供给均为赤字,其中宁波、舟山、绍兴、丽水、台州、金华耕地处中等不可持续利用状态,杭州、温州、湖州、衢州、嘉兴为强不可持续利用状态。此外,丽水、衢州、温州、金华、湖州、绍兴、嘉兴、宁波、杭州9个城市在其各自经济发展水平上,万元GDP的耕地生态足迹占用率均不同程度的高于浙江省全省水平,表明这几个城市的经济活动中技术水平低于浙江省平均水平,耕地资源利用效率低,导致对生态环境的冲击大。对浙江省2013～2018年耕地生态足迹的预测结果表明浙江省耕地利用在未来的五年中将持续处于中等不可持续发展状态。该研究成果为浙江省的耕地生态安全预警提供了理论依据,同时也可为浙江省的土地利用规划提供一定的决策支持。
[Abstract]:In this paper, using the improved ecological footprint model based on emergy analysis, the cultivated land yield factors of Zhejiang Province are revised from the point of view of national and provincial hectares. On this basis, the index of ecological sustainable use of cultivated land was constructed, and the situation of sustainable utilization of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2012 was analyzed dynamically from the time dimension. In this paper, the spatial differences of the sustainable utilization of cultivated land in 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province in 2012 were analyzed from the spatial dimension, and the ecological footprint of cultivated land per capita in Zhejiang Province in 2012 was taken as a fixed value to carry out ecological analysis of 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province. Comprehensive analysis of economic and social IPAT. Finally, the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land per capita and ecological footprint of cultivated land per capita in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2018 were predicted by using the grey theory GM1 / 1) prediction model, and the sustainable utilization index of cultivated land in the past five years was calculated and analyzed. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2012 is at a relatively low level and stable, the ecological footprint of per capita cultivated land is decreasing in a wave manner, and the ecological deficit per capita has moderated in the past ten years. However, the sustainable utilization index of cultivated land was kept between 0.2150 and 0.2664, and the cultivated land use was moderately unsustainable. The ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land and ecological footprint of per capita cultivated land in all cities of Zhejiang Province showed strong spatial differences. In 2012, the ecological supply of cultivated land in all cities of Zhejiang Province was in deficit, among which Ningbo, Zhoushan, Shaoxing, Lishui, Taizhou, Jinhua cultivated land is medium unsustainable, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Huzhou, Quzhou and Jiaxing are strong unsustainable. In addition, nine cities in Lishui, Quzhou, Wenzhou, Jinhua, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Ningbo, Hangzhou, in their respective levels of economic development, the ecological footprint occupancy rate of the cultivated land of 10,000 yuan GDP is higher than the level of Zhejiang Province in varying degrees. The results show that the technical level of economic activities in these cities is lower than the average level of Zhejiang Province, and the utilization efficiency of cultivated land resources is low, resulting in a great impact on the ecological environment. The forecast results of ecological footprint of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2018 indicate that the utilization of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province will continue to be in a state of medium unsustainable development in the next five years. The research results provide theoretical basis for early warning of ecological security of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province, and also provide some decision support for land use planning in Zhejiang Province.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211

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