近50年安徽省气候生产潜力演变及粮食安全气候承载力评估

发布时间：2018-08-08 15:40

【摘要】：安徽省是重要的粮食产区,在保障我国粮食安全中发挥着重要作用,研究该省气候生产潜力的演变特征,面向粮食安全分析其气候承载力具有显著的现实意义。本文从粮食生产与光温水等气候因子的关系出发,采用逐级订正的方法计算了安徽省的气候生产潜力及其变化特征,并根据不同生活水平下的粮食需求指标,分析了安徽省的气候承载力和剩余空间。结果表明,安徽省气候生产潜力的地理分异特征显著,其中北部高于南部、平原高于山区,高值区主要集中在沿淮及淮北地区,与耕种条件配合较好,有利于生产潜力的发挥。1961~2013年全省气候生产潜力基本呈一致下降趋势,近50年平均减少了约10%。安徽省目前粮食消费水平和结构属温饱型向小康型过渡阶段,在充分发挥气候生产潜力的前提下,全省气候资源所能承载的粮食产量均显著超过不同生活水平下的总需求量。小康水平下,气候承载力的相对剩余率总体呈东北向西南递减的趋势,除部分城市地区和山区外,全省大部地区气候承载力的剩余空间仍较富裕,能够较好的保障粮食需求。总的来看,由于安徽省光温水以及耕地等条件配合较好,气候承载力较高;虽然受太阳辐射影响,近年来气候生产潜力下降,但在保障未来小康社会的粮食安全方面,安徽省仍具有较好的气候承载力,粮食生产还有较大的提升空间。
[Abstract]:Anhui Province is an important grain producing area, which plays an important role in ensuring the food security in China. It is of great practical significance to study the evolution characteristics of the climatic production potential of Anhui Province and to analyze its climate carrying capacity in the face of grain security. Based on the relationship between grain production and climatic factors, such as light, temperature and water, this paper calculates the climatic production potential and its changing characteristics of Anhui Province by using the method of step by step correction, and according to the grain demand index under different living standards, The climate bearing capacity and remaining space of Anhui Province are analyzed. The results show that the climatic potential of Anhui Province is distinguished by geographical differentiation, in which the northern part is higher than the south, the plain is higher than the mountainous area, and the high value area is mainly located along the Huaihe River and the Huaibei region, which is in good harmony with the cultivation conditions. The climatic production potential of the province from 1961 to 2013 showed a decreasing trend, which decreased by about 10. 5% in the last 50 years. At present, the grain consumption level and structure of Anhui Province belong to the transition period from the type of food and clothing to the type of Xiao Kang. On the premise of giving full play to the potential of climate production, the grain output that the climatic resources can carry in Anhui Province is significantly higher than the total demand under different living standards. At the well-off level, the relative residual rate of climate carrying capacity is decreasing from northeast to southwest. Except for some urban areas and mountainous areas, the remaining space of climate carrying capacity in most areas of the province is still relatively rich, which can better ensure the food demand. On the whole, due to the better coordination of light, warm water and cultivated land in Anhui Province, the climate bearing capacity is relatively high. Although the climate production potential has declined in recent years due to the influence of solar radiation, it is in terms of ensuring food security in a well-off society in the future. Anhui Province still has a good climate bearing capacity, grain production has a greater room for improvement.
【作者单位】：安徽省气候中心;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201507);中国气象局青年英才计划中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013028) 安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划~~
【分类号】：S162

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