基于集合经验模态分解北疆降水多尺度变化特征
发布时间：2018-09-14 11:17
【摘要】：降水是中国西北干旱区水资源的重要组成部分,利用合理方法有效认识降水的区域变化规律对指导农业发展尤为重要。基于北疆42个气象站1961—2012年降水序列数据,从气候时间序列中提取气候信号中各个尺度的变化,对北疆过去52a来的降水进行多尺度分析,并对其空间差异进行了初步探讨。结果表明:过去52a北疆降水量存在明显的年际和年代尺度的变化,年际尺度的周期为5a和8a,年代尺度的周期为10a和30a。变化趋势上,降水量1985s之前呈减少趋势,在1985s之后呈增加趋势,且后期的增幅大于前期的减幅。突变分析表明北疆年降水量呈增加趋势。集合经验模态分解(EEMD)是一种适用于非线性、非平稳序列的信号分析方法,将EEMD应用于气候要素时间序列,可提取可靠真实的气候变化信号,同时,EEMD可以得到气候变化的固有时间尺度。
[Abstract]:Precipitation is an important part of water resources in arid areas of northwest China. It is very important to use reasonable methods to understand the regional variation of precipitation in order to guide the development of agriculture. Based on the precipitation sequence data of 42 meteorological stations in Northern Xinjiang during 1961-2012, the variations of climate signals in various scales were extracted from the climatic time series, and the precipitation in the past 52 years in Northern Xinjiang was analyzed by multi-scale analysis, and the spatial differences were preliminarily discussed. The results show that there are obvious interannual and decadal variations of precipitation in Northern Xinjiang in the past 52 years. The periods of interannual scale and decadal scale are 5a and 8a, and the periods of decadal scale are 10a and 30a respectively. The precipitation decreased before 1985s and increased after 1985s, and the increase in the latter stage was larger than that in the earlier period. The abrupt change analysis shows that the annual precipitation in Northern Xinjiang is increasing. Set empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is a signal analysis method suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary sequences. EEMD is applied to the time series of climate elements to extract reliable and real climate change signals. At the same time, the inherent time scale of climate change can be obtained by EEMD.
【作者单位】： 新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院;中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所;
【基金】：国家国际科技合作计划项目(2010DFA92720-13) 新疆维吾尔自治区土壤学重点学科项目
【分类号】：S161.6
[Abstract]:Precipitation is an important part of water resources in arid areas of northwest China. It is very important to use reasonable methods to understand the regional variation of precipitation in order to guide the development of agriculture. Based on the precipitation sequence data of 42 meteorological stations in Northern Xinjiang during 1961-2012, the variations of climate signals in various scales were extracted from the climatic time series, and the precipitation in the past 52 years in Northern Xinjiang was analyzed by multi-scale analysis, and the spatial differences were preliminarily discussed. The results show that there are obvious interannual and decadal variations of precipitation in Northern Xinjiang in the past 52 years. The periods of interannual scale and decadal scale are 5a and 8a, and the periods of decadal scale are 10a and 30a respectively. The precipitation decreased before 1985s and increased after 1985s, and the increase in the latter stage was larger than that in the earlier period. The abrupt change analysis shows that the annual precipitation in Northern Xinjiang is increasing. Set empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is a signal analysis method suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary sequences. EEMD is applied to the time series of climate elements to extract reliable and real climate change signals. At the same time, the inherent time scale of climate change can be obtained by EEMD.
【作者单位】： 新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院;中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所;
【基金】：国家国际科技合作计划项目(2010DFA92720-13) 新疆维吾尔自治区土壤学重点学科项目
【分类号】：S161.6
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相关期刊论文 前10条
1 苏向明;刘志辉;魏天锋;王月健;刘洋;;艾比湖面积变化及其径流特征变化的响应[J];水土保持研究;2016年03期
2 热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明;杨建军;刘永强;郭玉川;何学敏;;新疆近54年气温和降水变化特征[J];水土保持研究;2016年02期
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